The President of the United States, Donald Trump, and the Iranian regime reached a pre-agreement to halt hostilities, restore maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and contain the possibility of Iran’s arms expansionism.
Furthermore, the memorandum of understanding aims to reestablish the conditions for the influx of money and the reconstruction of Iran.
This was negotiated after nearly four months of war that ousted Iran’s top leadership and greatly diminished Iran’s ballistic missile and power expansion capabilities.
. He didn’t give in. On the contrary: the regime became a collection of leaders: both the political leaders, who (finally) signed the agreement; such as paramilitary leaders, linked to the Revolutionary Guard, which is the armed body of the ayatollahs’ regime.
When questioning whether understanding will be sufficient to establish normality in the Middle East, one has to think about the region, because Iran insisted that Israel stop attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, at the same time that the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait), which were attacked by Iran, were left in a hot seat.
The Arab countries don’t know exactly what to do, because the relationship with Iran is permanent: the country is there and will always be an important neighbor. But, at the same time, it is not clear whether they are at peace or not.
This understanding was supported by the G7 countries, which met this week in France. .
It is a step forward towards reestablishing normality in the Middle East and the world.
* Alberto Pfeifer He is the general coordinator of the Defense, Security and Intelligence group at USP (University of São Paulo) and a Geopolitics researcher at Insper Agro Global. He was director of Special Projects and Strategic International Affairs at the Presidency of the Republic. This text was transcribed in first person video analysis for the WW
