More than four years after the start of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin’s strategy of keeping war out of the population’s daily lives is beginning to reveal its limits. For the first time in several years of war, even some of Russia’s most nationalist and pro-war voices are beginning to admit that what Russians see “with their own eyes” no longer coincides with the official narrative that “everything is fine.”
The war that Vladimir Putin tried to keep at a distance from the Russians is increasingly reaching deep into the country and becoming impossible to hide. The conclusion is from the latest report, which considers that the intensification of in-depth Ukrainian attacks is exposing “Russia’s weaknesses and inability to defend its population”, while at the same time placing the Kremlin in a dilemma: how to continue to present the invasion of Ukraine as a distant conflict when the consequences are beginning to be felt in the heart of Russia itself.
Throughout more than four years of war, the Kremlin sought to preserve a kind of normality in Russians’ daily lives. While military operations were taking place on Ukrainian territory, the state propaganda machine maintained the idea that the so-called “special military operation” was taking place far from major Russian cities and that citizens did not have to change their lives because of it. However, that narrative is becoming progressively more difficult to sustain, according to ISW.
According to US analysts, the “increasing frequency, scale and depth” of Ukrainian attacks against heavily defended cities, such as Moscow and Saint Petersburg, is revealing “increasingly evident vulnerabilities in Russian defenses” and forcing the Kremlin to confront the “internal costs of .
The ISW considers that Kiev is managing to demonstrate that even the most important urban centers in Russia are not untouchable. And the events of the last few hours reinforce this idea once again.
In the early hours of Wednesday, , having hit the Moscow refinery again, for the second time in just two days. Although Russian authorities claim to have intercepted the overwhelming majority of drones, the ISW considers that Kiev is increasing its long-range attack capabilities to the point that “even a relatively small number of drones that manage to reach their targets produce significant effects.”
More importantly, the attacks appear to be causing cracks in one of the sectors that, since the start of the war, has given the most support to the Kremlin.
Even pro-war military bloggers are starting to lose patience
One of the most relevant observations in the ISW report has to do with the reaction of several Russian military bloggers, usually nationalists and defenders of Moscow’s war effort, some of them even with views that go beyond Vladimir Putin’s official objectives.
Far from repeating the official narrative, several of these commentators used the attacks on Moscow to draw attention to an uncomfortable reality for the Kremlin: war is no longer a distant phenomenon and is reaching regions of Russia that, for years, have been relatively protected.
One of the bloggers, in a since-deleted post, acknowledged that Ukrainian forces managed to cause significant damage despite strong anti-aircraft protection around the Russian capital. Others highlighted that Ukraine is managing to take the war far beyond the border regions and argued that Russia will have to reinforce air defense systems throughout the territory.
However, the most scathing criticisms were not directed at the Armed Forces, but rather at the information system controlled by the State itself.
One of the bloggers accused those responsible for the Russian media of being “disconnected from the people” and of having created an artificial reality in which “everything is fine”. In his opinion, citizens should be confronted with an image that is closer to reality.
Another warned that if nothing changes, official reports will end up being “even further from reality than they already are.” There were also those who directly pointed the finger at the narrative constructed by the Kremlin since the beginning of the invasion.
According to one of these bloggers, state media accustomed Russians to the idea that the “special military operation” was something distant, that it only affected Ukraine and not Russia itself. Now, he wrote, Russian citizens can “see with their own eyes” that state media claims that “everything is going well” do not correspond to reality.
Kremlin tries to maintain the narrative of normality
For the ISW, the state media’s response to the attacks demonstrates that the Kremlin remains committed to controlling information and minimizing the political impact of the events.
Analysts stress that repeated Ukrainian attacks against deeply indented and heavily defended areas, such as Moscow, “continue to expose Russia’s weaknesses and inability to defend its population.”
According to the report, instead of focusing on the damage caused by the attacks, the main Russian media outlets focused on official statements and highlighted the need to punish citizens who filmed the attacks and their consequences.
For analysts, this strategy reflects the growing dilemma faced by the Kremlin: the closer the war approaches the heart of Russia, the more difficult it becomes to sustain the idea that the conflict remains distant from the lives of Russians.
