() and () are already competing in a second round even before the official start of the campaign. The impact of the “” case, the advancement of investigations into the PT camp and the turnaround of the government machinery prepare the two campaigns for a direct clash.
The PT member regained his status as favorite as soon as the banker, in May. Lula exploited the moment to, as a defense of the end of, and open the government’s coffers to try to gain popularity points.
After a start to the year in which the winds seemed to blow in favor of his opponent, the result for the president was comforting, but still modest. The government’s assessment is slowly improving, and Lula still sees Flávio close behind him in the second round simulations.
Now, the investigation into the Senate, (PT-BA), appears as a variable capable of diluting the acute effects of the scandal that hit the right. Even if in a diffuse way, the episode may offer antibodies to voters who are looking for justification to continue by Flávio’s side.
The “Dark Horse” case caused limited damage to the senator’s candidacy, as shown by the numbers from the new survey carried out by . Jair Bolsonaro’s son seems to have managed to halt his decline to a level that keeps him as the most competitive name on the right, without facing a real threat from other suitors.
Even so, the research shows that the episode, which disoriented Flávio’s pre-campaign for a few weeks, was not a mere hiccup. The senator still appears ten points behind Lula in the first round and lost the technical draw that encouraged his committee in the second round simulations.
Although it has preserved the loyalty of the Bolsonarista voter and a good portion of the right-wing voter less linked to these faithful groups, there is a restricted band that shows that it is on the back foot in relation to Flávio and could be greatly missed in a presidential election that, once again, promises to be tight.
Flávio is still going through a kind of crisis of confidence in strategic sectors of the electorate. This picture appears clearly in the first round, where Datafolha captured a distancing of important groups when the “Dark Horse” case broke out.
The senator has even recovered some points in recent weeks, but his performance continues to be well below the capital accumulated by the family patriarch in segments such as evangelicals and more educated Brazilians.
In the first round, Flávio appears four points behind Lula in the Southeast region and has a modest advantage of just seven points in the South. Among voters with higher education, the PT member has six points more than the PL pre-candidate.
Even among men, who gave Jair Bolsonaro good advantages in the past, Flávio only had a draw with Lula in the first round (37% to 37%).
Flávio’s hopes — and the poll numbers give the senator some reason.
Face to face with Lula, Jair Bolsonaro’s son receives a mass migration of voters interested in defeating the PT member. Flávio gains 12 points and recovers ground with more strength precisely in sectors such as men, voters with more years of study and in the South.
Today’s scenario still leaves a reasonable gap for what would be a movement to anticipate this flow in the first round. If voters identify an inevitable direct confrontation between Flávio and Lula, two candidates who arouse intense passions, they can advance their choices in the initial phase of voting.
