The crisis is on a path of dangerous escalation after the attack by Iranian forces on a commercial container ship in , on Thursday night.
The strike, which took place in , torpedoed international efforts to restore navigation in the planet’s most critical energy corridor and caused an immediate jump of more than 2% in international oil prices.
The attack came hours after the , in a show of control over the Straits, had warned ships that the only route through the vital passage for oil and gas was through its own territorial waters. Many ships used a route on the southern side of the Straits, sailing close to the coast of Oman.
The strike disrupted traffic through the critical sea passage, belying President Trump’s assertion that Iran does not control the Straits, as well as his assurances that they were once again open to navigation.
The diplomatic thriller
The attack forced the International Maritime Organization (IMO) – a UN agency – to suspend its plan to remove sailors from hundreds of ships stranded in the Persian Gulf.
It was not immediately clear how the strike would affect ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran over control of the Straits and Tehran’s nuclear program. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Gulf Arab leaders in Bahrain on Thursday, trying to allay their security concerns.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had warned the ships earlier on Thursday that they must coordinate with its navy and stressed that they should not take alternative routes, in an apparent reference to Oman’s territorial waters. The threat came as shipping in the strait skyrocketed this week after months of paralysis, the New York Times reported.
“This route is unacceptable and extremely dangerous,” the Revolutionary Guards Navy said early Thursday in a statement carried by Tasnim, Iran’s Guard-affiliated news agency. “We are warning all vessels to strictly refrain from any movement outside the designated routes,” he added, warning that action would be taken against vessels that do not comply with his instructions.
‘Ever Lovely’ ship targeted
The UK Maritime Trade Organization (UKMTO), which is run by Britain’s Royal Navy, said a cargo ship had been hit by an “unknown projectile”, causing damage to the bridge. The incident occurred 7.5 nautical miles south-east of Dahit in Oman, where ships following the Oman route were passing through.
The affected ship, the Ever Lovely, is owned by Evergreen Marine, a Taiwan-based shipping company, according to shipping database Equasis. The Wall Street Journal was the first to report the strike against the ship in the Straits.
Jakob Larsen, head of security at BIMCO, the world’s largest shipping association, said in a statement Thursday that the attack underscored the importance of having clear agreements between the United States and Iran to resume shipping through the Straits. The current agreement “is not sufficiently clear,” he stressed.
Iran’s wrath and Oman’s predicament
The Iranian official, who asked not to be named because he was not authorized to speak publicly, said providing an alternative route from Oman to the ships angered Iran and undermined its control over the passage, which is why it decided to take action.
The official added that Oman is in a difficult position, as on the one hand it is working with Iran to establish a Straits management system and on the other hand it is under pressure from the United States to reject all economic exploitation and open the sea passage. He added that Oman is unable to provide security guarantees to the ships without Iran’s involvement, and that Iran, which insists on maintaining control of the region, will not tolerate third-party interference.
Although Iran agreed last week to allow ships to pass safely, it is also seeking to gain more influence over shipping traffic, said analyst Noam Raydan, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Iran wants this navigation regime to work on its own terms,” it said.
Paralysis and temporary “window” in navigation
Traffic through the Straits has skyrocketed this week as ships stranded for months in the Persian Gulf began to leave. Shipping companies are seeking to take advantage of a temporary two-month window to move crude from the Middle East.
About 70 vessels crossed the strait on Wednesday, including 29 tankers, making it the busiest day since March 1, according to data released Thursday by marine data firm Kpler. Before the war, more than 130 ships passed through the Straits daily.
Bahrain is the final stop on Rubio’s three-nation tour, which also brought him to the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. Meeting with representatives of the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council in Bahrain’s capital, Manama, he sought to reassure regional allies about a preliminary peace deal with Iran that has left some of their central security issues unanswered.
“We want to ensure that whatever decisions are made throughout this negotiation process, the interests of our partners and allies in the region are always taken into account,” he told council representatives on Thursday. The deal must not undermine “the security, stability or prosperity of any of our partners in the Gulf region,” he added.
Gulf concerns over Iranian missiles
Gulf Arab states welcome efforts to end the war, but are concerned that the preliminary agreement does not cover Iran’s missile and drone programs, which Tehran has used to attack the region. At the same time, the navigation regime in the Straits of Hormuz remains unresolved, with the Revolutionary Guards insisting that coordination with them is mandatory.
Although some stranded ships, such as Denmark’s Maersk, have begun to leave after safety assessments, the situation remains fluid. Since May, the US military (CENTCOM) has helped transport 500 ships and 250 million barrels of crude oil through alternative routes near Oman.
For his part, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio categorically rejected Tehran’s claims, stressing: “International sea lanes do not belong to any state. Without this fundamental principle, the planet would be in utter chaos.”
