Tsahkna / X
The Ukrainian bet on long-range drones is turning Russian refineries and warehouses into strategic targets, with effects increasingly felt by consumers.
Ukraine has stepped up drone strikes against Russian refineries, depots and supply routes, causing fuel shortages in several regions of Russia, from occupied Crimea to Siberia, and demonstrating a growing ability to target critical infrastructure far beyond the front line.
Last week, recalls , Ukrainian drones crossed Russian air defenses and in Moscow for the second time in three days, in an operation integrated into Kiev’s biggest attack ever against the Russian capital.
The images of the explosion, which designed a tank lid of oil over a column of black smoke and flames, circulated quickly as a sign that the Ukraine manages to take the war to Vladimir Putin’s doorstep.
The Ukrainian ability to strike in depth has increased significantly since the start of the war. In 2022, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed to have the ability to achieve targets around 630 km away. This year, it says its long-range weapons are destroying targets at around 1,750 km.
At the beginning of the invasion, Russia had a clear advantage in this areawith ballistic missile arsenals and access, since the summer of 2022, to drones Shahed Iranian-made, capable of traveling up to 2,000 km with a 50 kg warhead.
Before the Allies’ hesitation to supply long-range weaponsKiev invested in its own industry. This bet matured throughout the war and transformed drones, previously auxiliary on the battlefield, into one of the most important weapons in the Ukrainian arsenal.
Fire Point, maker of the FP-1 attack drone and , now plans to develop a European anti-missile defense systemwhile the Pentagon will be considering purchasing Ukrainian drones and electronic warfare systems.
According to one from the Baker Institute, Ukraine still did not, in 2025, have the capacity for sustained long-range strikes deep into Russian territory.
But Gabriel Collins, an expert on energy and geopolitics in Eurasia, believes that Barriers to entry for this type of weaponry have been lowered significantly. Before the invasion, hitting targets more than 1,000 km into an adversary’s territory with effective air defenses was seen as a capacity reserved for powers such as the USA, Israel, China or Russia.
The impact is already visible. Analysts cited by The Independent estimate that more than 1/5 of Russia’s total refining capacity may have become inoperable.
The International Energy Agency indicated, in its report, that Russian crude production fell by around 5% year-on-year last month, to 8.7 million barrels per day, due to the attacks.
“This level of disruption is unprecedented in the history of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine,” the agency said.
Kiev says the strategy aims to reduce an essential source of financing of war and show Russians that the conflict is closer to home. Energy revenues represent aroundand 23% of the Russian federal budget and close to 20% of GDP.
One from the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air calculated that Russian revenues from exports of oil, gas, coal and refined products amounted to 193 billion euros in the 12 months to February 24, 2026, 27% less than in the comparable period before the invasion.
The pressure also reaches consumers. The price of gasoline in Russia rose from around $0.65 per liter before the invasion to $0.95 in May this year.
In recent weeks, there have been restrictions imposed on the purchase of gasoline in the center of the country, officially attributed to “temporary logistical difficulties”, and similar reports emerged in the south and west of the country.
In occupied Crimea, videos circulated of long queues for gas. In Omsk, Siberia, 2,400 km from the front, the ban on filling drums worsened residents’ concerns.
“Now are you supposed to cut firewood with a hand saw? Mow the lawn with a gas-free machine? We’ve come to this. There are no words“, a resident told the local newspaper.
