In recent weeks, a portion of the right has clashed over the formation of slates and the struggle for the 2026 elections. The main event last week was the . Flávio was initially ironic and afraid of the impact that the accusations could have on female voters. In Flávio’s video, his concern is evident when he emphatically highlights the importance of women in his life.
The numbers show that this firefight within the right could cause irreversible damage to the candidacies. Until June 23, the day before the video, the former first lady appeared in less than 3% of messages. Without considering the mentions of Lula, and taking into account only those who took a stand on the names mentioned, this number jumped to 45% when it reached its peak, on June 25th, according to , which carries out real-time monitoring in more than 100 thousand public e Telegram groups. In the same period, the Banco Master scandal, which had been occupying 86% of conversations involving the Bolsonaro family, and almost 43%.
Most Bolsonarism, more linked to Flávio, had a direct attack on . A portion chose to point to her as an agent of division on the right, representing just over 16% of mentions, accusing her of being someone who “implodes” and “splits” the movement on the eve of the election. There was also a group that accused her of being driven by ambition and a personal project of power, with emphasis on the requests to register the brand “Bolsonaro” and the use of the structure of , which brings together around 5,200 conservative women, as its own springboard. This group also accuses the former first lady of treason, highlighting that she had “stabbed” her husband’s legacy.
An interesting point is that Michelle’s defense is confused with the attack on , and here there is a union of forces between those on the right who are in favor of the former first lady and groups on the left, who took advantage of the episode to weaken the senator. In 55% of the mentions of Flávio, his name appears attached to the case, seeking to keep the audio episode alive and create expectations for possible new accusations against the senator. In more right-wing groups there is strong criticism of the way he handled the situation, trying to remove Michelle from the scene. Within this group, around 14% of messages were also highlighted, due to their drop in searches, .
In this broad exchange of barbs within the right, both Michelle and Flávio come out crushed, with the former first lady being seen as a traitor, and Flávio in the shadow of Vorcaro. There are those who try, in these groups, to focus on the involvement of close to 10% of the messages, but when this subject is brought up it does not produce the expected engagement, as it ends up having repercussions on the Bolsonaro family itself.
While Michelle and Flávio measure forces and there is a strong negative impact on the PL campaign, the other candidates manage to organize themselves and focus on preparing for the post-World Cup electoral dispute, when there will be greater focus on the presidential elections. Furthermore, the internal dispute within Bolsonarism opened up other fronts of conflict, such as that between Paulo Figueiredo and the senator.
To those observing from the outside, it seems like an attempt to create internal cohesion based on a generalized cleansing of those who are not 100% closed around Flávio’s campaign. The strategy, so close to the elections, could have bad consequences, increasing internal pressure and putting the candidacy itself at risk if it fails to grow again in the polls.
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