The leaders of major parties, from the PT to the PL, want to exclude majority campaigns — from candidates for the Presidency, the Senate and state governments — from the calculation of the minimum distribution quota for women’s and black people’s campaigns. The idea is to change the financing rule for this year’s election, with the approval of .
The suggestion was made to the president of the (Superior Electoral Court), by representatives of the parties. According to interlocutors, they defended the change, which is also supported by the Republicans and a wing of the PSD.
A is against, as he understands that he already has a design of applications that meets the current rule. The main focus of both parties is to elect federal deputies and senators. If opponents have difficulties managing the fund for these candidacies, the chances of success for PP and União Brasil candidates in this strategy of increasing their strength in Congress increase.
Minister Nunes Marques stated that he will study the claim and determined a technical analysis. However, he has said to allies that the issue is complex to be dealt with on the eve of the election.
Today, the TSE determines that parties allocate 30% of their FEFC (Special Campaign Financing Fund) to black candidates. The same percentage must be used to invest in female candidates.
The rule does not determine how this percentage should be distributed. In this way, parties can concentrate the reservation for women and black people in a few more expensive candidates, such as the Presidency and state governments, or spread this quota across several candidates for deputy.
The concern, mainly from the PT and PL, is that their presidential candidacies could consume a considerable part of their electoral fund. Candidates for state governments also tend to take a relevant share of resources, and the majority of candidates for these positions are men.
If the quotas continue to be calculated based on the total value of the fund, without distinction between positions, the parties with a greater number of candidates for the Executive will have to compensate by increasing the transfer to women competing for deputies and senators — and leaving the men running for these positions with fewer resources.
In the case of the PT, the problem with the concentration of funds in slates made up of men is clear: President Lula is up for re-election again with Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) as vice-president. There are still governors who will run for re-election, such as Jerônimo Rodrigues (Bahia), Elmano de Freitas (Ceará) and Rafael Fonteles (Piauí), in addition to Fernando Haddad in São Paulo.
This year, PT members will have R$615.4 million in electoral funds. Under the current rule, at least R$184.6 million needs to be invested in female and black candidates.
If the party maintains its forecast of sending at least R$120 million to the presidential candidacy, at least 37.2% of the remainder of the fund will need to be used for female and black candidates.
Internally, deputies have expressed concern about the rules. The PT tends to approve its own criteria for quotas, sometimes increasing the minimum investment. A wing of deputies complains, as they fear running out of campaign funds to the detriment of their female colleagues and black supporters.
The PL may face a similar problem. If Senator Flávio Bolsonaro chooses a male vice-president for the ticket that will run for President of the Republic, the party will also need to compensate by increasing the share allocated to women and black people in state disputes.
The most likely today, however, is for the vice president, both to signal to the female electorate and to stop the crisis caused by the video in which former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro criticized Flávio and stated that .
Bolsonaro supporters have an electoral fund of R$881.7 million. Under the current rule, Valdemar Costa Neto’s party needs to allocate R$264 million to candidates from women and black people. The party’s priority is to elect senators, with the majority of pre-candidates being men, which makes deputies fear that they will run out of funds.
PSD Ronaldo Caiado as a candidate for President, and . Despite the former governor of Goiás telling allies that he will count on donations from businesspeople to run, the party estimates that it must spend at least R$30 million on the presidential candidate.
Gilberto Kassab’s party has an electoral fund of R$421 million this year and is focused on electing federal deputies. The party, however, has expensive candidacies for state governments, such as that of Eduardo Paes in Rio de Janeiro. One of the bets to meet the quota is to invest in the governor of Pernambuco, Raquel Lyra, who will seek re-election.
As for the Republicans, the assessment is that the change could also make life easier for the party. The acronym will focus on the election for the Chamber of Deputies, but needs to invest resources in expensive government candidacies, such as Tarcísio de Freitas in São Paulo, who has a man as vice-president.
Behind the scenes, party leaders complain that quotas are difficult to meet. They remember that, in 2024, Congress issued a PEC (Proposed Amendment to the Constitution) to amnesty parties that did not comply with the rule. Afterwards, the STF maintained the quota at 30%.
