PS retreats but maintains lead, AD and Arrives in technical draw

The lead in labor law is seen positively by the majority of those interviewed, but the DN/Aximage barometer does not show gains for Chega. The Government’s assessment improves and Luís Montenegro surpasses José Luís Carneiro in confidence as prime minister.

The PS remains ahead in voting intentions, but loses part of its advantage over the AD. The PSD/CDS coalition rises and is technically tied with Chega in the dispute for second place.

The data is from June, carried out by Aximage on June 24 and 25, 2026 and published by Diário de Notícias.

The survey was based on 500 online interviews and has a margin of error of 4.4%, for a confidence level of 95%. The results come a few days after the proposal to review the Government’s labor legislation was submitted in Parliament.

Socialists have 29.3% of voting intentions, 4.1 percentage points less than in May, when they registered 33.4%. AD rises to 25.3%, against 23.2% in the previous month, while Chega remains practically unchanged, with 23.6%, compared to 23.5% in May.

Taking into account the margin of error, AD and Chega are technically tied in the dispute for second place.

Among the smaller forces, the Liberal Initiative rises to 6.5%, Livre to 5.8% and PAN to 2.2%. The CDU drops to 1.6% and the Left Bloc stands at 1.5%. Declared abstention falls from 27.7% to 26.2% and those who are undecided fall from 5.9% to 3.1%.

The Government’s assessment also improves. 39% of respondents consider that the executive acted “well” or “very well”, up from 33% recorded in May. Even so, the majority maintains a negative assessment: 56% give a “bad” or “very bad” rating to the Government’s performance, two points less than in the previous month.

In the question about who inspires the most confidence to hold the position of prime minister, Luis Montenegro takes the lead, with 28%, surpassing the PS leader, José Luís Carneirowhich drops to 27%. Andre Ventura gets 22%.

Regarding the overturning of the labor law, 61% of those interviewed consider the decision to be positive or very positive. Chega is identified by 48% as the main responsible for the overthrow, with no visible impact on the party’s voting intentions in this barometer.

A different barometer, for Correio da Manhã, CMTV, Now and Jornal de Negócios, with fieldwork between June 10 and 16, gave PS with 24.3%, Chega in second, with 20.3%, and AD in third, with 19.5%.

The portrait reinforces the trend of recent weeks: a PS in slight decline, but still ahead, and a right divided between a recovering AD and a stable Chega.