Half of Brazilians think that (PL) tried to promote a coup to stay in power after being defeated in the second round of the 2022 presidential election to (). 52% of those interviewed by , compared to 39% who do not believe in the hypothesis and 7% who say they do not know.
questioned 2,002 voters about the topic on December 12th and 13th. The survey’s margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points.
The result is similar to that measured on the previous occasion in which the question was prepared. Belief in Bolsonaro’s intention fluctuated negatively (it was 55%), and in his innocence it remained where it was (also at 39%).
Since then, the former president has been indicted in the investigation investigating the coup plot alongside 39 other people. He says he is innocent and a victim of political persecution and has already stated that the conversations to keep him in power were just that, without consequence.
They disagree, and there is the expectation that Bolsonaro could be denounced by the Public Ministry and even tried in 2025. He is already ineligible until 2030, condemned by the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) for his campaign against electronic voting machines.
The siege on the former president, who has already floated the chance of refuge in an embassy sympathetic to his cause, grew last weekend with the vice-president in 2022, the retired general and former minister.
The opinion obtained follows, on average, the socioeconomic design of the approval of the Lula government. The least educated (59%), the poorest (60%) and those from the Northeast (64%) say that Bolsonaro wanted to carry out a coup.
Conversely, those with higher education (47%), richer people (49%), residents of the South (50%) and evangelicals (52%) exempt the former president.
Obviously, the division between those who voted for Lula and those who chose Bolsonaro generates gulfs of opinion in these groups.
Another question posed to interviewees reinforces this view. For 68% of them, there was a risk of a coup in those final months of 2022. Of these, 43% believe that the danger was great, 17%, medium, and 8%, small. 25% of those heard, and 7% said they didn’t know.
The assessment is majority across all strata, reaching peaks among the poorest (74%), northeasterners (78%) and Lula voters (89%). They think that there was no risk but men (30%), richer people (34%) and those who call themselves Bolsonarists — even so, not the majority of this group, but 46% of its members.
The general view gains some nuances when the topic is explored with the interviewee.
Datafolha initially wanted to know who had knowledge of the investigations that revealed Lula, his deputy, Geraldo Alckmin (PSB), and the minister (), who is responsible for investigating the case.
63% of those interviewed said they were aware of these details, 29% of whom considered themselves well informed. 37% of people have not heard of the plan, with a notable 57% among younger people (16 to 24 years old).
The degree of knowledge directly affects the opinion about Bolsonaro’s direct participation in this or the arrest of authorities.
Among those who know the case, 50% believe he was involved, compared to 40% who say otherwise. The assessment is reversed among those who are not aware: 54% think the former president is innocent, and 22% think he is not.
This all makes up a general picture of population division. Overall, 46% think that Bolsonaro did not know about this particular plan, compared to 39% who say they believe in it. They were unable to evaluate a significant 15% of those interviewed.
The population divisions follow the same as other questions involving the characters of Brazilian polarization.
