The United States faces a possible shutdown of its government. If Congress does not reach an agreement in the early hours of this Friday to Saturday to expand budgets, the salaries of thousands of civil servants could be frozen, public services could be diminished and the final stretch of Joe Biden’s mandate could be stained.
This morning, the budget project presented by Trump, led by Elon Musk, has been disapproved of by Democrats and Republicans. The president-elect referred to his denied proposal as “A VERY important, VITAL piece for the America First agenda,” he declared. “SUCCESS in Washington!” he wrote in Truth Social. But, finally, it was censored.
This bill, which represented only the vision of Republicans, maintained some bipartisan provisions. The project allocated approximately $100 billion in disaster relief and some 10 billion for economic aid to farmersas did the bipartisan agreement reached on Tuesday. Newly, it included a one-year extension of the 2018 farm bill, as well as extensions for some health care programs, although not all of those that were in the initial agreement.
After the vote, the president of the Lower House, Mike Johnsonhas shown his disappointment with the result, but he blamed it on the democrats. “It’s very disappointing to us that all but two Democrats voted against helping farmers, against disaster relief and against all of these bipartisan measures that had already been negotiated.”
Still, Johnson has announced that “there is a new plan“and he pointed out that the chamber will be put to a vote throughout the afternoon. “Yes, yes, we have a plan. We’re expecting votes this morning, so everyone stay tuned. We have a plan,” he said upon arrival at the Capitol without giving more details.
It is not the first time that the United States faces a situation of this type. This process has occurred 20 times since 1976. In Donald Trump’s first term, in 2018, more than 800,000 officials were sent home. But what would happen if an agreement is finally not reached in the Lower House?
What causes a closure of the Executive?
The government can only spend money that has been appropriated by Congress. If the Lower House and the Senate do not reach an agreement on the budget law before the current one expires, and new short-term funds are not validated to close the financing gap, federal agencies will be forced to close.
What impact does it have?
The temporary suspension of items considered non-essential does not affect all agencies equally. Each one has their plans about how many employees will be suspended, which ones are considered essential and will work without pay, or which activities will stop.
In practice, as CNN recalls, hundreds of thousands of federal workers would be on sick leave and another hundreds of thousands would have to go to work, among them those that guarantee safety when traveling. None of them would get paid during that time, but most recover the money retroactively as soon as the Government reopens.
Previous shutdowns have caused everything from the closure of museums and national parks to the suspension of food health inspections or the interruption of scientific research programs, but Social Security payments, for example, are not affected.
How many government shutdowns have there been?
Since 1976, the year in which new budget laws were approved, the US Administration has run out of funds on twenty occasions, although most of the time it has only been for one day.
The longest closure, 35 days, occurred during the first term of Donald Trump (2017-2021)just before Christmas 2018, due to disagreements between Democrats and Republicans over funds for the wall that the Republican wanted to build on the border with Mexico.
The second longest, lasting 21 days, also took place in December, but in 1995, under the Administration of Democrat Bill Clinton (1993-2001).
Some closures lasted for such a short time, such as hours, just one night or a weekend, that government agencies stopped short of closing completely at that “impasse.”
Do they have an economic cost?
The impact of this stoppage could be multimillion-dollar. The closure of financing triggered by the Trump’s proposed border wall reduced US GDP by $11 billionaccording to the Congressional Budget Office. Of that amount, 3,000 million were not recovered, the newspaper recalls. The Washington Post.
Companies may also face difficulties obtaining federal permit approval, which in turn may be reflected in their investment and hiring decisions.
In case of prolonged closurelike the one under Trump, federal employees could limit their spending, hurting local economies, and the private sector would also be harmed if the Small Business Administration cannot approve loans.
What has caused the current disagreement?
The Republican majority in the House of Representatives and the Democratic majority in the Senate had reached a bipartisan agreement on Tuesday to provide the Government with new funds, but that agreement was torn down on Wednesday after the opposition shown by Trump, the current president-elect, to some resolutions.
Republicans presented a new unilateral project that included eliminating the debt ceiling for two years, but in Thursday’s vote they failed to move it forward due in part to internal dissent.
If the House of Representatives manages to approve a project this Friday, its processing must continue in the Senate, where the Democrats have control, so A proposal that is not bipartisan is difficult to succeed.
How do you overcome a government shutdown?
Given the polarization that the country faces, at the moment, it is being difficult to reach an agreement in the Lower House. However, in the event of a shutdown, both Democrats and Republicans will have to reach an agreement to extend the budgets and return to normal.
