After a 2024 marked by the polls – more than half of the world’s population voted in different electoral processes – and armed conflicts in Ukraine y Near Easthe 2025 is presented as a big question in which the unpredictability of Donald Trumpwho will return on January 20 to the White House after the Democrat’s four-year hiatus Joe Biden. A return that comes to strengthen a phenomenon that some experts have already baptized as “egopolitics“ and which includes other histrionic leaders with a questionable conception of democracy like the argentinian Javier Miley or Russian Vladimir Putin.
These are five of the topics that will mark international news in the year ahead:
The year that has just begun will undoubtedly be marked by Trump’s second term as head of the Government of USA. If he keeps what he promised, he will cause a disruption even greater than his first four years in Washington made him. At the international level, he has already confirmed that he plans to follow the same transactional logic which applied between 2017 and 2021: it has threatened the EU with imposing tariffs if the Twenty-Seven do not massively purchase American gas and oil; He has assured that he will regain control of the Panama Canal if this country does not lower what, in his opinion, are abusive tariffs; has ‘trolled’ Canada and Greenland by insinuating that they are or will be part of the US; and has demanded Hamas Before he arrives at the White House, he must release the hostages he still holds in Gaza or, otherwise, he will live in “hell”…
“It is an exclusively Trumpist way of negotiating,” says ‘Politico’: it uses intimidation tactics unusual and completely far from the standards of diplomacy and international relations to get other countries to end up doing what he wants.
On the economic level, according to the ‘think tank’ Barcelona Centre for International Affairs (CIDOB)we will have to see the effect of the new ‘Maganomics‘ (play on words between economics and MAGA, the acronym for Make America Great Again, the ideological movement built by Trump), which is supported by seven pillars: deregulation wild in key sectors such as energy, manufacturing and the financial sector; a protectionism fierce that will impact the entire world but also American homes; tax cuts with which it aims to boost the economy but which will also mean less income; draconian cuts in the Administration (two trillion dollars annually) in charge of the billionaires Elon Musk y Vivek Ramaswamy that will end up having an impact on basic social benefits; mass deportations of immigrants that will reduce the country’s workforce; control of the Federal Reservea historically independent organization, with the objective of depreciating the dollar to favor exports; and promotion of fossil energiesauthorizing new gas exploitation and eliminating restrictions on coal or oil in the opposite direction to the fight against climate change.
Hayat Tahrir al Sham leader Amed al Shara, formerly known as Abu Mohamed al Jolani, on December 28 during a meeting in Damascus. / MOSA’AB ELSHAMY / AP
In the hornet’s nest Near Eastthe year starts with the same doubts about the future of Syriawhere on December 8, after 13 years of civil war, the rebels of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, Levant Liberation Organization) managed to take control of the country in a lightning offensive and end half a century of the Assad family regime. The objective of the rebel group, which in the past was a Al Qaeda franchiseis to stabilize the country and draft a Constitution within 36 months to be able to hold elections in four years.
The leader of the HTS, Ahmed al Shara (when he came to power he abandoned his nom de guerre, Abu Mohamed al Jolaniplaced in memory of the place of origin of his family, the Golan HeightsSyrian territory occupied by Israel), has promised that the new Syria will respect the minority rights and of the women. But these good words from Jolani, who has reduced the length of his beard and has changed his military uniform for a Western-style suit, are not entirely convincing. Senior officials in the US Administration have explained to ‘The New York Times’ that they fear it is a ploy similar to that used by the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2021: gain international support and consolidate power and then impose a harsh Islamist regime.
Meanwhile, in Gazathe Israeli offensive continues after almost 15 months and more than 44,000 deaths without any of the attempts to achieve a peace. cease-fire. If achieved, however, it will not be a “positive peace, justice and reparation”, it will not reach a “political solution that establishes a stable long-term framework,” as he explained. Pol Morillasdirector of CIDOB, during the presentation of the themes of this 2025. In the same way that has happened in the Lebanonwhere the truce reached by Hezbollah “has more than war break that is the first step towards resolving the conflict”.
It will also be important to focus on Iranbecause in October 2025 the world powers must decide whether to reactivate the sanctions against Tehran who rose up with the nuclear deal (JCPOA, in its acronym in English) and that have had a strong impact on the civilian population. In the country of the ayatollahs, there are many voices that urge to recalculate the nuclear strategy and consider that the country should build the atomic bomb as a strategy of deterrencea former member of the Israeli intelligence services tells EL PERIÓDICO. According to estimates, Iran has about 180 kilos of uranium enriched to 60%. “If you decide to enrich it to 90%, the percentage necessary for a nuclear weapon, in one month you would have enough fissile material for 10 devices,” adds this former member of Israeli intelligence.
Ukrainian soldiers hold a ceremony in memory of their fallen comrades during the winter solstice in Kharkiv, December 22. / EVGENIY MALOLETKA / AP
One of the big questions of the year is whether we will reach a peace agreement in Ukrainewhich, if everything remains the same, on February 24 will enter its fourth year of war. Trump has promised that in 24 hours he will be able to end the conflict and the Russian president, Vladimir Putinseems willing to sit at a negotiating table, although he has already stated that it must be Washington that takes the first step.
According to Carmen Claudínsenior researcher at CIDOB and one of the leading national experts on Russia and the former Soviet space, Ukraine is increasingly willing to “accept” that certain territories remain in Russian hands, but in no case is it willing to “capitulate.” The question is what Moscow will put on the table. “Without military guarantees For Ukraine there is no possibility of an agreement. If there are no options for you to enter the I’LL TAKE“We must seek a formulation of security guarantees, a coordinated platform of EU member countries that are committed to being the military guarantee of Ukraine’s security,” Claudín emphasizes.
Furthermore, according to CIDOB, we must not rule out, in a “scenario of Trumpist unpredictability”, the possible consequences for Putin of a refusal to a peace negotiation proposed by Washington. In one war of egoswe must not ignore important signs of “weakness” such as the fact that Moscow has had to resort to North Korea to replenish troops on the Ukrainian front, as Claudín points out.
Also important will be the role that the European Union (EU) in negotiating a possible truce in Ukraine. “It will depend a lot on what happens in Germany in (the) February elections: Friedrich Merz (the CDU candidate) has always been more favorable to intervening in Ukraine,” according to Carme Colomina, principal researcher at CIDOB.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at a press conference. / OMAR HAVANA / AP
In Europathe two main points of attention will be this year, especially during the first months, on Germany y France. Berlin will hold general elections on February 23 after the chancellor Olaf Scholz opted for an advance after the collapse of his government coalition with the Liberals and the Greens. According to surveys, the conservative bloc that they form CDU and CSUled by Friedrich Merz, will achieve victory, followed by the ultra Alternative for Germany and Scholz’s SPD. One of the options being considered is a reissue of the call ‘grand coalition’ between conservatives and social democrats. In fact, Scholz himself was vice chancellor and finance minister with Angela Merkel as chancellor.
In France, uncertainty remains about the political future. In 2024, the country had four prime ministers and the current one, François Bayrou, is on the tightrope and runs the risk of being censured like his predecessor, Michel Barnier. The minority where Macronism finds itself in the National Assembly after the elections last July, where the left-wing coalition New Popular Front won the majority of seats ahead of the extreme right of Marine Le Penwill contribute to the perpetuation of this situation of instability while the president Emmanuel Macron do not give in to the requests of the two majority groups.
The two countries, historical locomotives of the European economy, are also going through serious financial difficulties. In 2024, France has registered a public deficit above 6% of GDP and a debt of 112%. Macron’s goal is to carry out a budget adjustment of 60,000 million euros through spending cuts and tax increases, but its minority in the legislature prevents its approval. Germany, for its part, has closed its second year in recession, with an industrial model anchored in the past that has not been able to adapt to the digital revolution.
Guatemalan migrants deported from the US wait at La Aurora International Airport to be taken to their destination. / MOISÉS CASTILLO / AP
Immigration policies are going to once again be one of the main news focuses this year on both sides of the Atlantic. “The key word will be ‘deportation‘”, in the opinion of Blanca Garcessenior researcher in the Migration area of CIDOB. Trump never tires of repeating his intention to carry out the largest deportation in history and assures that he will remove the 13 million irregular immigrants who are estimated to live (and work) in the US. How it plans to carry out this enormous task is also unknown, but what is clear is that it will require a titanic economic effort and mobilization of resources.
In the EU, Member States must prepare for the implementation, in mid-2026, of the migration and asylum pact approved during the last legislature, which strengthens control and toughens the conditions for granting refuge. And the season has been opened for the location of immigration detention centers in third countriesfollowing in the wake of the agreement of the Government of Giorgia Meloni with Albania. The Italian justice system has suspended migrant transfers for the moment, but in Brussels this model is viewed favorably. In fact, this policy of externalizing community borders is not new; It is only necessary to look back and remember the agreements with countries of dubious democratic quality such as Morocco, Tunisia, Libya o Türkiye. “We will see the old dynamics repeated,” explained Garcés, after emphasizing the “intensification of resounding failure of international law“and pointing to the EU as the origin of the current migration crisis.
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