Relations between North Korea and Russia have deepened rapidly over the course of 2024the year we just closed. For the first time in two decades, the Russian president, , visited North Korea, culminating in a mutual defense pact. As a result of increasingly closer relations, against Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region.
“This alliance has alarmed officials in Washington and Beijing. Sensing China’s discomfort with the growing security partnership between Russia and North Korea, the US State Department and European officials have urged China to use his influence to stop the deployment of Pyongyang troops“explains Alex Richter, Carnegie China Young ambassador and research intern at the American Enterprise Institute.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China has remained silent until now forks unlikely May diplomatic pressure from the United States on China convince North Korea to change course. “Instead, the diplomatic efforts of the United States should be aimed at generating consensus international with other states to delegitimize the activities of North Korea.
For China, North Korea is both a strategic asset and a liability. Historically, China and North Korea have had a close relationship.and in 1961 they signed a mutual defense treaty that is still in force. China represents 90% of all trade with North Korea and it is an economic lifeline for the Kim regime. “But China also considers North Korea’s nuclear program as a destabilizing force and has supported various efforts to denuclearize the Korean peninsula,” the specialist clarifies.
The security partnership between Russia and North Korea exacerbates China’s insecurities. As Beijing is forced to share influence over Pyongyang with Moscow, North Korea has more room to improve its nuclear capabilities with Russia as an alternative security and trade benefactor. North Korea’s troop deployment will also attract unwanted attention from the United States and European outcome that “China seeks to avoid.”
Despite these frustrations, “Beijing highly values its relations with Russia and North Korea.” when exporting dual-use materials worth 300 million dollars necessary for Russia’s weapons production.
Although China has refrained from supply lethal aid directly to Russia to avoid triggering secondary Western sanctionsdoes not want to see Russia defeated, as it remains a strategic deterrent and partner against American coercion. It will undoubtedly work in Beijing’s favor Whether North Korean soldiers strengthen Russia’s capabilities without costing China money and risk external economic repercussions.
Historically, China’s economic and diplomatic pressure has been primarily directed towards North Korea’s nuclear programbut refused to condemn North Korea for bombing Yeonpyeong Island, which killed four South Koreans, or for launching a torpedo at a South Korean warship that killed 46. This suggests that China unlikely to condemn North Korea for the much less destabilizing action of sending ground forces to the Russian Kursk region.
China’s lack of action so far indicates that North Korea’s troop deployments and its commitment to Ukrainian forces do not endanger China’s “strategic security and core interests”. China is almost certainly does not share the United States’ view that North Korea’s support is “a dangerous expansion of the conflict, with serious consequences for European and regional security.”.
“Rather than unilaterally exerting diplomatic pressure, the United States should seize this opportunity to shape norms by promoting territorial sovereignty and delegitimizing North Korea’s military assistance to Russia“, escribe Richter.
Relations between the United States and China are increasingly dominated by a power politics mentality in which China sees the United States as a country hell-bent on maintaining hegemonywhich results in disappointment with diplomacy in good faith. The creation of a broad coalition of states to condemn North Korea’s troop deployment may signal to Beijing that the goal of withdrawing North Korean troops reflects the genuine concerns of the international communityrather than a Washington strategy to promote American interests in Europe or the Indo-Pacific.
Part of China’s strategy to shape the global order is to present yourself as a leader and defender of the Global South. As much of the international community opposes the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the United States has an opportunity to build support among the Global South and co-opt China’s attempts to exercise leadership.
But many countries in the Global South They depend economically on Russia and they are unlikely to be receptive to US moves to condemn North Korea’s troop deployment to Russia. Some states, such as Niger’s new military junta, receive direct military support from Moscow. Others depend economically on Russia and prefer balance relations, such as India, which has expressed its discontent but has not explicitly condemned the Russian invasion.
“The United States should identify countries in the Global South that are not susceptible to Russian coercion. Could collaborate with Southeast Asian countries such as the Philippines, Singapore and Malaysia to coordinate multilateral statements condemning North Korea’s deployment of forces,” he added.
Southeast Asian states have criticized the United States for forcing them to “choose sides” in the rivalry between the United States and China. But while choosing sides in the context of the United States and China could mean losing Chinese investments, “Russia does not have this influence in Southeast Asia”.
“Diplomacy alone will not ensure that Ukraine can end the war on favorable terms or prevent North Korea from sending troops to Russia. However, a concerted diplomatic effort to generate an international consensus condemning North Korea is essential to create favorable political conditions to support Ukraine and dissuade other states from supporting Russia,” he concludes.
