The growing arms production by Russia is raising concerns about a possible direct threat to Europe. Experts and security officials assure that the situation remains extremely tensewith NATO on alert for Moscow’s military ambitions, which extend beyond its immediate needs in Ukraine.
Although pressure from US President Donald Trump, who will be inaugurated this Monday, could help end hostilities This year, analysts warn that the threat from Russia remains considerable in the long term.
Specifically, the German Defense Ministry has expressed concern about the growing Russian threat, which, according to security sources, is preparing for a conventional attack against NATO within three to five years.
Russia is already increasing its weapons production and building up military stockpiles, including missiles, drones, gliding bombs and combat vehicles. According to Major General Christian Freuding, Russia is producing up to 3,000 gliding bombs a month and 1.5 million drones annually. In addition, Russian companies are manufacturing long-range combat vehicles with components from China.
Threat to NATO: possible hybrid attacks
Putin’s troops still face several challengeslike the lack of access to key components due to sanctions Western countries, which limits the quality and speed of production, especially in technological areas such as microprocessors.
However, the buildup of weapons, both conventional and long-range, along with the mass recruitment of soldiers, has raised tensions in Europe. Added to this is that Russia is using hybrid tacticss, like sabotage y cyber attacksagainst several Western nations.
Security analysts say Moscow is likely to resort to a combined attack with drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missilesin what could be a initial phase of the war against Europe. The defense expert Nico Lange warns that, despite its weaknesses in terms of logistics and morale, The Kremlin is willing to accept great sacrifices and use brutal military force.
For his part, the military analyst Roderich Kiesewetter highlights that the Kremlin is preparing the battlefield for a possible aggression against a NATO member in the coming yearswith cities like Narva, Estonialocated on the border with Russia, as a potential target.
Strengthening deterrence and defense of Europe
Despite these challenges, experts such as Marie Agnes Strack-Zimmermannchair of the European Parliament’s Security and Defense Committee, argue that Russia’s deterrence depends on NATO’s ability to defend itself. In his opinion, Ukraine is key to guaranteeing stability in Europe.
“Putin literally tasted blood,” says the defense expert, who believes that it is necessary to expand military aid to the attacked country. “If you want to keep the peace, you must be able to defend yourself. If we do not finally understand this and Putin triumphs in Ukraine, attacks against a NATO member in four or five years will be more than real“he reflects.
