The letter that US President Donald Trump sent to the Brazilian government detailing the rates that threatens to apply to Brazil was the only one addressed to business partners who, which limits the negotiation margin. The comment is in a separate chapter included in the July Foreign Trade Indicator (Icomex), released on Monday (14) by FGV/IBRE.
For FGV/IBRE experts, this extra difficulty for the government lies in the fact that the reasons exposed deal with issues that are from the exclusive purposes of the Brazilian State. In addition, Trump still justifies the measure by nonexistent deficits.
The document points out that Brazil’s trade balance has been systematically deficient with the United States since 2009. And only in the first half of 2025, the Brazil-United States Bilateral Balance pointed a $ 1.7 billion account for Americans.
The performance of trade flows shows that, in terms of volume, exports to the United States exceeded the total growth of Brazilian exports in the 2012/2016 periods; 2020/2024 and in comparison between the first two semesters of 2024 and 2025.
In the case of imports, only comparing the first 2024 and 2025 bimestres and in the 2016/2020 period, external purchases from the United States surpassed the total imports of Brazil.
The report also points out that, despite a relative good export performance, it is a fact the loss of importance of the United States on the Brazilian trade agenda. Between 2001 and 2024 the share of exports from the United States fell from 24.4% to 12.0% and imports from 22.7% to 15.5%.
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Although these losses are related to China’s advance, FGV/IBRE highlights, this result is explained by changes in the dynamic comparative advantages and not for a deliberation of Brazilian policies.
The losses of participation of the United States in the Brazilian Imports agenda, for example, are concentrated on capital goods and semidurable goods. In the case of intermediate goods, which explain most imports, participation remained stable.
Also according to Icomex, the question that is on the current debate’s agenda about Trump’s tariff is the effect on Brazilian exports. The export agenda for the United States is quite diverse. While 10 products explained 57% of Brazilian exports to this market, in the case of China only 3 products (oil, soybeans and iron ore) explained 96% of Brazilian exports by 2024.
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“Information conveyed by the press indicates that the agricultural, steel industry and other segments of the transformation industry headquartered, in particular, in the state of São Paulo consider that the 50% taffle could make exports unfeasible,” says the report.
The text says that, at the moment, negotiations are expected to be possible and that Trump follows the behavior nicknamed “Trump Always Chickens Out”, which in free translation means Trump “yellow or back”.
“More detailed reviews should wait for the final result of this litigation. Finally, as the Paul Krugman Nobel Prize in Economics recalled, US exports represent about 2% of Brazilian GDP. In addition, part of Brazilian exports to the US multinational companies, which will be able to press the Trump government, just as companies in the United States that use Brazil’s intermediate goods in their production.”
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Semester trade balance
About the Brazilian trade balance between January and June, which showed a surplus of US $ 30.1 billion, below the balance of US $ 41.6 billion in the same period last year, Icomex commented that the worsening is explained by the highest growth in imports than exports.
The report mentioned that the drop in commodity prices, issues associated with increased Russian oil purchases and construction recovery difficulties (iron ore) affect exports to China, Brazil’s main commercial partner, which registered a retreat of 7.5% in the first two semesters of 2024 and 2025.
In imports, the appreciation of the exchange rate, the anticipation of imports with the uncertainties brought by the Trump government and the growth of the transformation industry were the factors cited.
