Released on Monday (28), Focus Bulletin points to light adjustment in forecasts, but scenario remains challenging for price control
Financial institutions reduced, for a consecutive week, the estimated inflation to 2025. According to the, released on Monday (28) by, the forecast for the IPCA (National Index of Large Consumer Price) fell from 5.10% to 5.09%. Still, the expectation remains above the ceiling of the goal defined by the 4.5%National Monetary Council. For 2026, estimate went from 4.45% to 4.44%, while those from 2027 and 2028 were maintained at 4% and 3.8%, respectively. The central goal of for all these years is 3%, with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage point up or down.
With inflation above the goal for the sixth consecutive month until June, the president of the BC, sent a public letter to the Minister of Finance, explaining the reasons for non -compliance. According to the document, the high price was influenced by factors such as heated economic activity, exchange, electricity and climatic effects.
Even with the recent decline of inflation, the basic interest rate (Selic) remains at 15% per year. This level was defined by the Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee) at the last meeting, which resulted in the seventh consecutive increase in interest. The decision surprised part of the market, which expected to maintain the rate. In the minutes of the meeting, the committee indicated that it can keep Selic at the current level in the next decisions, but has not ruled out new increases if inflation rises again. The next board meeting will be held on Tuesday (29) and Wednesday (30).
The Focus Bulletin maintained Selic’s projection by 15% per year by the end of 2025. For 2026, it is expected to fall to 12.5% per year, with new estimated reductions to 10.5% in 2027 and 10% by 2028. The Selic rate is the BC’s main instrument to control inflation. When interest rise, credit makes it expensive and consumption tends to decrease, which helps contain prices. On the other hand, high interest rates also reduce the pace of the economy. When Selic falls, credit gets cheaper, stimulating production and consumption, but with less inflationary control.
GDP and exchange
The estimated growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 was maintained by 2.23%. For 2026, the forecast slightly rose from 1.88% to 1.89%, while for 2027 and 2028 the market projects growth from 2% per year. GDP is the sum of all goods and services produced in the country and serves as the main indicator of economic activity.
Driven by the agricultural sector, the Brazilian economy grew 1.4% in the first quarter of 2025, according to IBGE. In 2024, the country registered a expansion of 3.4%, the highest growth since 2021. Regarding the exchange rate, the forecast for the dollar at the end of 2025 retreated from $ 5.65 to $ 5.60. For 2026, the expectation was maintained at R $ 5.70.
The Focus Bulletin is released weekly by the Central Bank based on projections of more than 100 financial institutions. The report serves as a thermometer of market expectations about the main indicators of the Brazilian economy.
Posted by Felipe Dantas
*Report produced with the aid of AI
