“Faint resistance in the midst of persistent uncertainty.” The titles of the Economic Perspectives of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are sometimes eloquent. Although they do not always age well. On this occasion, we will have to wait for that evaluation, but the world economy seems to have overcome, for the moment, without great sequelae, Donald Trump, when he changed the rules of international trade as we knew them so far and, with a simple cardboard poster, announced indiscriminate tariffs to the whole world.
The IMF projects a world growth of 3% for this year and 3.1% by 2026, and a tenth respectively compared to the last World Economics Perspectives published last April. “Most regions are experiencing moderate improvements in their growth this year and next. This resilience is welcome, but also fragile. While the commercial impact could be less severe than it was initially afraid, it remains considerable, and there is more and more evidence that it is harming the world economy.”
The calculations for Spain remain constant, without improvements, but not downward reviews. In this way, Spain remains the country among the developed economies that will grow the most this year ,. Fund economists predict a loss of dynamism and estimate that GDP will advance 1.8% next year, only behind Canada and the United States.
The update of the fund’s economic perspectives (Weo) occur two days after the United States and the European Union have reached an agreement on tariffs. The result, after weeks of intense negotiations between the largest economic blocks in the world, is that it accepts a general rate of 15% for its exports to Washington, with some exceptions.
“The evolution of world trade continues to condition the perspectives. After an unprecedented escalation of tariffs imposed on the rest of the world last April, the United States partially reversed its position, to most of its commercial partners,” said the organism chief economist, Pierre-Loivier Gourinchas on Tuesday.
The multilateral agency, an economic order that is threatened by the new rules that Donald Trump wants to impose, does not hide his concern for the future of the economy, despite the fact that the worst scenario that his economists drew three months ago has not materialized. “Despite positive advances, tariffs remain at historically high levels and world politics remains very uncertain, since only a few countries have reached fully consolidated trade agreements,” Gourinchas apostille.
The fund admits that there has been a modest decrease in commercial tensions that, although it is fragile, has contributed to the world economy has managed to resist the challenges that hit it. The technicians of the institution that presides over the Bulgarian Kristalina Georgieva lists three events that have contributed to sustaining the economic rhythm despite the growing risks. “This reflects the concentration of tariffs before application, lower effective tariff fees, better financial conditions and fiscal expansion in some important jurisdictions,” says the organism based in Washington.
First, the announcement by Trump in April that it would impose indiscriminate reciprocal tariffs had an immediate effect on exports of the second quarter to the United States, this phenomenon was a notable increase in the billing of European and Asian companies and, therefore, an acceleration of these economies. On the other hand, financial conditions improved and central banks have maintained a relaxation of their monetary policy after controlling the inflationary crisis. And finally, the depreciation of the dollar, 8% since January, has amplified the impact of the shock Tariff on the competitiveness of other countries.
