The house arrest of (), of the (Supreme Federal Court), revived allies of (Republicans) as to the possibility of being the candidate for the succession of Bolsonarism to the Presidency in 2026.
The movement is still shy and occurs in the wake of weeks of discouragement with potential candidacy. Until last week, Tarcisio’s assessment of the electoral scenario was a negative moment for his political group, according to interlocutors.
The governor was the target of criticism, from different sides of the political spectrum, for his attempt to act in the tariff, because he did not comment on the sanctions of the against, of the STF, and for not making any gesture about (3).
Allies estimated that, more than any other moment, he lost more than he won when entering this dispute.
In the pro-Bolsonaro demonstration where she was absent, she received a hard attack from Pastor Silas Malafaia, who said, “Are you afraid of the STF? So they didn’t get here?
The senator (PL-RJ) also criticized right-wing governors, such as Tarcisio, for not having participated in Sunday’s Bolsonarist acts (3), classifying as a “great strategic error”. The movement, as well as the insistence of (PL-SP) to put itself as a successor, even though living in the United States, are seen as an internal dispute for the father’s electoral estate.
With the anticipation of Bolsonaro’s anticipated arrest last Monday (4), close people said there was a new pressure movement for Tarcisio to stay in the list of successors. This Thursday (7), the governor was in Brasilia and requested authorization from the Supreme Court to visit the political godfather in house arrest.
Tarcísio was minister of infrastructure in the Bolsonaro government and, in the folder, endorsed the then president’s negationist attitude over Covid. in which the former president laughed by commenting on an alleged increase in suicides in the pandemic.
One of the factors of discouragement in Tarcisio, according to allies, is the lack of willingness to buy fight with the Bolsonaro clan. The governor has a habit of barking allied and subordinate conversations about his eventual presidential candidacy.
The only scenario in which the governor would top up the reelection to the government to run for Planalto, according to them, it would be if Bolsonaro publicly nominated him as a successor.
The gesture is considered by allies as the only way to dispel noise in the political field. So, too, despite being a frequent target of pockets, he makes a point of keeping a channel directly with Bolsonaro, with whom he was periodically and spoke often.
The former president’s interlocutors say that he is aware of the electoral difficulty that his children would face in a presidential dispute, and that Tarcisio would have greater chances of prospering. However, according to reports, until last week, the governor said that if he competed against, he would lose.
Tarcisio argued that the 50% surcharge on Brazil’s products imposed by the United States damaged his political field, given the economic damage to the electorate – all because he himself supported the election of.
He further stated that the opposing field had learned to use social networks and that Lula, winner of five elections, according to his accounts (also considering Dilma Rousseff’s victories), could never be underestimated.
Even his reelection would be at risk, according to the report of interlocutors. Tarcisio estimated that the vice president (), who ruled São Paulo four times, had won a leading role among entrepreneurs in the discussions to mitigate the crisis and could be encouraged to return to the Bandeirantes Palace.
In these evaluations, however, the governor diminished the importance of the vice president’s work, saying that the affected companies themselves had triggered suppliers and buyers to negotiate better terms with the US government, some of them successfully, such as (which was spared from tariff).
In addition, Tarcisio pointed out that there was still time to reverse the adverse scenario and that the opposing field could also wear out to the election, which will be in October next year.
Publicly, the governor had triggered a defensive mode. He avoided public agendas in the capital – set the first week after the crisis in the interior of the state, far from the national press, and the following week only in internal orders at the Bandeirantes Palace – and reduced posts on social networks.
Also, not knowing what the demonstration of Paulista Avenue would be like last Sunday, he marked a simple medical procedure, which made him criticized on the stage.
Tarcisio, however, both rapidly reacted to the former president’s arrest, with a video, and the energetic tone of the message.
