The first two days of coincided with the outbreak in Brasilia of new pressure for amnesty A, movement with reflection in the three powers and linked to the 2026 elections.
While, without inclusion of upstairs, leaders of the center and opposition say they do not see support for this idea or in the Senate – they estimate having enough votes to approve a wide forgiveness to all involved.
Forgiveness that, however, would maintain Bolsonaro’s ineligibility for convictions in the Electoral Justice, sacramenting the presidential candidacy of Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (), who landed this week in Brasilia to act on the front line of the pro-annasting articulation.
In a wing of the (Federal Supreme Court) and the Lula administration, the assessment on Wednesday (3) was also that the amnesty broth thickened, and that tying the center to him and giving a response to critical pockets to his name.
Approval by the Congress of Forgiveness, whatever it may be, would still depend on two factors: Lula’s sanction, but with the final word of Congress itself, which by majority of its members can overthrow presidential vetoes, and a validation by the STF itself, which would certainly be caused to manifest about the constitutionality of the measure.
According to Centrão leaders, there are about 300 votes in the House for a broad amnesty that avoid Bolsonaro’s arrest. The trial of the former president and seven other defendants ends next week, with expectation of conviction. The maximum penalties added can result in over 40 years in prison.
The most intense pressure part of, and republicans.
On the night of Tuesday ,.
This text, for months under the responsibility of former Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), would have the sympathy of ministers of the Supreme for not relieving the situation of those who planned or funded scammer acts, but did not leave the role precisely by the resistance of pockets, which insists on including forgiveness to the former president.
Despite saying no majority support for Alcolumbre’s text, some members of center-right and right-wing parties say there is a possibility of agreement around a compromise, even to avoid the risk that the Senate president stops putting a eventual voting chancelled by deputies.
This middle ground could also result in a political agreement involving tacit commitment of at least part of Supreme Ministers that the court would not overthrow the proposal.
There are also those who say in Congress that the Tarcisio-Centenrão movement is nothing but the scene that should not prosper, serving only to prevent the Bolsonarist base from making the candidacy of the governor of São Paulo from alleging lack of commitment to assist the former president.
Sought again this week, some STF ministers reaffirmed to consider the proposal of the most palatable Senate summit, but also said they saw a greater disposition of the political world by the broad amnesty after the movement of Tarcisio and the Center.
Behind the scenes, they said that the court president Luís Roberto Barroso, who amnesty before the trial is an impossibility, but after that, becomes a mistake.
In addition to Barroso and the five ministers of the first class, who is judging Bolsonaro, the Supreme Court is composed of five more magistrates, including both nominated by Bolsonaro: André Mendonça and Kassio Nunes Marques.
In the House, the pressure on the president of the House (Republicans-PB) has grown and he publicly admitted that he can guide the vote.
It was agreed that the amnesty project will not be voted this week, but can go to the agenda.
The urgent request, to accelerate the proposal, can be analyzed next week.
Among petistas and governors, a way out will be to try to mobilize public opinion, including calling the amnesty of impunity, and regimenting the government to support Motta in resistance to the project.
In this sense, alcohumbre’s speech was celebrated. At the same time, the assessment of this group is that the obstacles already announced in the Senate and the Supreme Court should not take a pockets, as forgiveness has become a mobilization motto.
At the meeting of leaders, on Tuesday (2),, PP, Republicans, Novo and União Brasil defended the amnesty, while the PSD stated that its bench was divided. According to deputies, there is a majority for the urgency, but there are doubts about the merit.
PT leader (RJ) attributed the advance of amnesty, which said he considered a mistake, to Tarcisio’s articulation, which, he said, “killed in his chest” to consolidate his presidential candidacy with the center and pockets.
The petista also said that “the thing became serious” and that there was a “change of tone and intensity”, indicating that the amnesty should be analyzed in plenary. “A movement grew with the presence of the governor of São Paulo. […] It seems to me a desire to guide it, “he said.
This Wednesday, the President (PT) told Union Brazil members who oppose the advancement of the Amnesty Project. At lunch at Alvorada’s palace with party ministers and alcohubre, the president asked for commitment against the project by stating, among other things, that he would mean a surrender to the US President ,.
