Shutdown on the Trump administration, which began on Wednesday (1st), paralyzes part of the federal services of the United States. The White House released a document that estimates the economic impacts of the measure.
The material informs that, according to estimates of the Goldman Sachs, shutdowns in approximately 0.2% per week – number similar to that obtained by the Fed (Federal Reserve).
The White House estimates that the impact would equivalent to approximately $ 15 billion every seven days.
A one -month stoppage would also lead to 43,000 unemployed people, says Goldman Sachs.
Based on the 2013, which lasted 16 days, Fintech Global Fiserv estimates that the US capital economy is “significantly greater” contraction than other areas.
At the time, the PCE (Consumer Spells Index) in the region had a low 5% During the period.
Social Programs are other federal costs delayed the White House cites some examples, such as the Special Program for Supplementary Nutrition for Women, Babies and Children), which will not have funds for October and will leave helpless about 7 million of mothers and children.
In terms of federal labor force, it is estimated that more than 1.9 million of civil servants They should face temporary dismissals or lack of compensation, although they remain in activity.
Without compensation, the White House Economic Advisers Council estimates that a one -month shutdown can reduce consumer spending on $ 30 billion.
The document also has losses for the private sector. The consumer bankers’ association evaluates that US $ 2 billion In loans were delayed during previous stoppage, impairing credit capture and mainly affects small businesses.
With reduced federal agencies, foreign sales may fall, as export licenses and certifications may not be issued.
Barack Obama’s government reported that in 2013 Shutdown caused more than 2 million liters of alcoholic beverages produced in the US for export could not be certified, besides the non -processing of US $ 3 billion In loans, warranties and insurance by the country’s export bank.
With approximately $ 15 billion per week dedicated to federal contracts – being more than US $ 3 billion Small Business – the document concludes that companies would also lose resources with the absence of work and lack of transfers for completed projects, which can lead to the resignation of employees as well.
In addition to the White House, other national agencies calculate losses.
Without budget, the NPCA (National Parks Conservation Association) projects that the closure of some national parks, without money to operate, will lead to loss of US $ 1 million per day in the revenue of spaces, while the daily loss to the surrounding communities can reach the $ 80 million.
