Port city of Kaohsiung in southern Taiwan
Maritime blockade could be China’s strategy to hit Taiwan right in its “Achilles heel” — without alerting international attention to a large-scale invasion.
Practically 100% dependent on imported fuel, both Taipei and Washington fear every day that China will ‘burst the bubble’ and invade Taiwan, as it has been threatening for several years. But the big danger may not even be invasion.
Taiwan’s greatest weakness lies in liquefied natural gas (LNG), which accounts for almost half of the electricity produced on the island.
Around 97% of Taiwan’s energy is imported by sea, which means that in a complete blockade situation, LNG reserves would be exhausted in just a few daysquickly paralyzing electricity production.
Beijing has been keen to show, through its army, that it can do this: Chinese military exercises have already demonstrated how Beijing could isolate and strangle the island, blocking key sea routes for energy supplies, instead of attracting attention with a large-scale invasion.
The Taiwanese government has sought to increase energy storage capacity and reevaluate the island’s energy matrix.
Among the options being studied is nuclear energy — the last reactor was recently shut down, in fact, safety concerns led to the closure of all reactors, in a country that in the 1980s had more than 52% of its electricity coming from nuclear energy.
On the table is also the reinforcement of renewable energies, which currently represent less than 12% of electrical production. The goal is to achieve 70% renewable energy by 2050.
But if this is a goal that is still far from being achieved, dependence on imports also keeps Taiwan vulnerable.
A recent study by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), cited by , revealed that, Under a Chinese blockade, LNG stocks would last less than two weekswhile coal would only arrive for about seven days.
The immediate impact would be felt in the semiconductor industry and production, which has global repercussions — Taiwan is home to the world’s largest chipmaker, . Any effort to ration electricity would have to be politically managed, the report warns.
Other simulation exercises have shown that Taiwan could deplete its LNG stocks in just 11 days during a lockdown.
However, to prevent such a catastrophe, legislation is being discussed in the US Senate to support the island’s ability to secure LNG supplies from the United States, including insurance for carriers if deliveries are threatened by China.
In addition to electricity, a complete lockdown would halt the arrival of essential goods. Taiwan could keep the population fed for about nine monthsgiven that approximately 70% of food is imported. But industrial production would suffer drastically even if there was enough electricity to keep factories running. The economic impact would be gigantic.
Taiwan continues to rely on external LNG suppliers, including Qatar, which supplies 30% of the island’s consumption but is dominated as a market by China.
