More than 7.5 million Bolivians are expected at the polls this Sunday (19) to vote, for the first time in the country’s history, in a second round of presidential elections.
The election is also historic as it marks the end of almost 20 years of government of the party MORE (Movement to Socialism), founded by former president Evo Morales (2006-2019).
This Sunday’s dispute takes place between Rodrigo Paz, candidate of the Christian Democratic Party, who surprised by emerging victorious in the first round with 32.02% of the votes, and former president Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, of the Aliança Liberdade e Democracia, who obtained 26.70% in the vote on August 17.
Although both candidates are right-wing, there are differences between their proposals to put an end to the years of the MAS political project, under the governments of Morales and Luis Arce, who is at the end of his term.
Quiroga, 65, presided over the country between 2001 and 2002, after the resignation of dictator Hugo Banzer, whose vice president he was.
From the right, he advocates taking out an immediate loan from the International Monetary Fund and other organizations to deal with the currency shortage.
He advocates reducing the number of state institutions, and proposes a “popular ownership” scheme for public companies. The idea is to give shares in the main state companies to all Bolivians of legal age, so that the population receives dividends.
Paz, 58 years old, is the son of former president Jaime Paz Zamora, former mayor of the municipality of Tarija and currently a senator.
He proposes “capitalism for all” and defines his political project as “center”. His government plan envisages freezing the activities of all loss-making state-owned companies and hiring by the State.
Due to the country’s lack of foreign currency, he proposes the reorganization of public finances and states that he will not go into debt so that the IMF’s money remains with the powerful, instead of being allocated to small investors.
Voting intention
The most recent electoral survey places Quiroga as the favorite to win the second round. The latest Ipsos-Ciesmori poll for the Unitel television network puts the former president in the lead, with 47% of voting intentions, 7.7 percentage points ahead of Rodrigo Paz, with 39.3%.
According to the survey, however, 5.5% of voters were still undecided, 3.5% intended to vote blank and 4.7% to vote invalid.
The latest survey by Captura Consulting also places Quiroga at the forefront of voting intentions for the second round, with 42.9%, 4.2 percentage points away from Paz, who appears with 38.7%.
According to this survey, released by broadcaster Red Uno on October 10, 10% of those interviewed were undecided, 5.8% intended to vote null and 2.6% planned to vote blank.
The country’s research institutes, however, were put in check in the first round, when they did not foresee Rodrigo Paz, who led the vote, among the candidates with the most voting intentions.
Main challenges of the next president
The task will not be easy, especially to correct the strong imbalances in the economy. In the first half of this year, the country had its first recession in almost four decades, with a negative growth rate of 2.4%.
With gas production in decline – the country’s overall extractive activity fell 12.98% in the second quarter – the country is trying to deal with a serious shortage of dollars, which has a strong impact on the price of products and the supply of fuel, almost all of which is imported.
Kilometer-long queues are already part of the daily lives of Bolivians, who have seen queues at gas and diesel stations multiply over the last year. Bus and truck drivers spend up to three days in queues, waiting to get gas.
The lack of fuel even generated fears of logistical problems in the elections this Sunday (19). But the government of Luis Arce and the state-owned company YPFB (Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales Bolivianos) committed to the TSE (Supreme Electoral Court) to guarantee the necessary supply to carry out the election.
But the shortage affects several sectors essential to Bolivians’ daily lives, such as food production.
At the beginning of the week, the CAO (Agricultural Chamber of the East), which covers producers in the eastern region of the country, stated that the lack of fuel had paralyzed production, and asked the future president for a definitive solution to the problem.
“For months we held on as long as we could, we did the impossible to keep production alive, the engines running, the harvests on time and food on Bolivian tables. But today, agriculture is in intensive care, and we are one step away from crossing the point of no return”, stated CAO president Klaus Freking.
The lack of dollars and fuel also affects another problem that punishes Bolivians: inflation, which in September reached 23.32% annually.
For political scientist Lily Peñaranda, regardless of the degree of capitalism proposed, the next president will have to take “absolutely unpopular” initiatives. “These will be measures that will lead to a deepening of the crisis, because there is no other way out,” he told CNN.
According to her, the country now has “fictitious stability” with the current official exchange rate – of around seven Bolivianos per US dollar – sustained by burning the country’s few remaining international reserves.
“There will necessarily have to be a more flexible exchange rate, and with the devaluation of the currency, we will have inflation in the basic food basket and in the cost of living. The flexible exchange rate will also make fuel more expensive, and with the price increases, salaries will not be sufficient. It is a recipe for a deep social crisis, but it is inevitable, inescapable”, he states.
What are the elections like in Bolivia?
Voting runs from 8am to 4pm (9am to 5pm Brasília time). If there is a queue in the voting rooms, however, voting will only end after everyone present has voted. Voting in Bolivia is on paper, with a ballot on which the voter marks their candidates for president and vice president with an “x” or another symbol.
After choosing, the ballot must be deposited in a cardboard ballot box, which has an opening covered in plastic on the front, allowing its interior to be visible.
The votes are counted by poll workers and recorded manually in an electoral record, the photo of which is sent to the TSE (Bolivian Supreme Electoral Court) counting center, for the publication of preliminary results on the day of voting.
The first results are expected at 9 pm Brasília time.
The official result, however, will only be proclaimed after each electoral record has been reviewed by the Bolivian TSE.
A CNN will follow the voting and the repercussions of the Bolivian elections directly from La Paz.
