The former president () has accumulated setbacks in recent days with Congress and his appeals running out at the (Supreme Federal Court).
He processes the coup plot in the face of a possible determination of a closed regime, with an aggravating factor: the fragmentation of his political group. The former president complained to interlocutors among allies.
In his assessment, the isolation brought about by house arrest, in which he has been held since August 4, has generated these internal divergences as a consequence.
The home stay was imposed after the STF understood that Bolsonaro failed to comply with previously imposed precautionary measures, such as not using his own social networks or through third parties. Two weeks ago, Minister Alexandre de Moraes confirmed the decision, saying there was a risk of escape.
The measure added to other bad news for the former president.
Last Sunday (26), Lula and Trump met for the first time. The expectation is that the PT government will be able, through negotiations, to reverse at least part of the commercial tariffs or reduce the percentages. And with that, as shown by Sheet.
Lula was already on a journey, in which he managed to reverse the rejection of his government, mainly based on the discourse of sovereignty, in contrast to the actions of Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP), son of the former president, in the United States.
In parallel, the amnesty project for those convicted of the 8th of January, the main bet to avoid Bolsonaro’s imprisonment in a closed regime, stalled in Congress.
The scenario is even more aggravated amid public fights and controversies in its political field. In the assessment of one interlocutor, with the former president away from day-to-day political discussions, his group has dispersed and each one acts as is best for them. Bolsonaro would believe that, if he had not been in prison, he could have sat down with allies and resolved their differences.
One of the examples cited by his interlocutors is the one on social media between the governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado (União), and the senator and president of the PP, Ciro Nogueira (PI).
Caiado disputes the electoral spoils of the right-wing Planalto and accuses Ciro of positioning himself as Bolsonaro’s “spokesperson”, “which he is not”. The senator, in turn, said that he had time for empty controversies. “Our opponent is whitewashed, he can say anything: you’re right. Satisfied?”
Intermediaries entered the circuit, and Caiado is expected to have a conversation with Bolsonaro in the coming weeks, the first between the two since the former president was arrested. During this period, he was with Ciro Nogueira twice.
At the time, the governor of Goiás defended the Sheet that the right would have more than one name running against Lula (PT) in 2026. For him, a candidate alone against the federal government will be placed in a position that no one can handle.
The senator, in turn, defends a union of presidential candidates around a single name, the most electorally viable – today, the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans).
The clash over who will be the candidate supported by Bolsonaro in 2026 is what has sparked most of the discussions today on the right.
Bolsonaro is already ineligible and now faces another criminal conviction for his role in the coup plot, whose sentence is 27 years and three months in prison.
Eduardo’s candidacy
has been the pivot of many of the discussions in its political field. If once the role of the most combative son on social media went to councilman Carlos Bolsonaro (PL), now it is with Eduardo, who is placing himself as a candidate for President – even if from the United States and with no expected return date.
Eduardo’s intention to run as a candidate from the USA and even against his father’s wishes has faced criticism even from those who were allies until recently.
He has already had clashes with Ciro Nogueira, with right-wing governors, most notably Tarcísio, and with the president of the PL, Valdemar Costa Neto, among others.
The parliamentarian took a more ideologized and radicalized position in the USA. He places amnesty as a condition to reverse the tariff – a turning point in Bolsonarism this year, which cracked the base and brought wear and tear to the political group.
According to reports from allies, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro traveled to the United States at his father’s request to align his speech with his brother.
Eduardo’s allies say that they talked about 2026 and that the two will be together supporting the same candidate as the former president — which, so far, they say is himself.
To demonstrate a less bellicose situation, Bolsonarists are counting and say that Eduardo has not criticized the governor of São Paulo for 20 days. Still, people close to the deputy say that this does not mean any type of alignment with the governor.
Eduardo maintains the defense that the candidate for president must be a member of the Bolsonaro family. If it is not his father, he states in conversations, he himself will run for President to make what he sees as the candidacy linked to the center unfeasible.
There was an expectation among members of these parties that Flávio would convince his brother to tone down and promote a union of the right during the trip to the USA.
Eduardo’s allies claim, however, that this did not happen and that the two must work so that Bolsonaro or another member of the family is a candidate. In a sign of this supposed alignment, Flávio suggested in a post on X (formerly Twitter) that those carrying drugs in Rio de Janeiro.
Senator Cleitinho (Republicanos-MG), who will seek a governorship in Minas Gerais, made a statement classifying Eduardo’s launch of his presidential candidacy as reckless.
In response, the deputy wrote on X, formerly Twitter: “It was imprudent for us to give the Senate seat to you. But we will correct many of our mistakes.”
