After six months of non-compliance with the target system ceiling, the president of the BC, Gabriel Galípolo, sent a public letter to the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, detailing the reasons for the new deviation
The median of the report for the of 2025 fell from 4.56% to 4.55%. The rate is just 0.05 percentage points above the target ceiling of 4.50%. A month ago, it was 4.80%. Considering only the 90 estimates updated in the last five business days, the measure went from 4.53% to 4.51%. The projection for the 2026 IPCA remained at 4.20%. A month ago, it was 4.28%. Considering only the 89 estimates updated in the last five business days, the median remained at 4.20%.
O expects the IPCA to add 4.8% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, according to the trajectory published in the last communications cycle of the. In the relevant horizon, the first quarter of 2027, the board expects inflation in 12 months to be 3.4%. In the last decision, the Copom maintained the Selic rate at 15% and reaffirmed that the scenario is marked by high uncertainty, which requires caution in the conduct of monetary policy. “The Committee will remain vigilant, assessing whether maintaining the current level of interest rates for a fairly long period of time is sufficient to ensure the convergence of inflation to the target”, he emphasized.
The panel also detailed, in the minutes, that, “as the scenario has shaped itself as expected, the Committee begins a new stage in which it chooses to keep the rate unchanged and continues to evaluate whether, maintaining the current level for a fairly prolonged period, such a strategy will be sufficient for the convergence of inflation to the target”. From this year onwards, the inflation target is continuous, based on the IPCA accumulated over 12 months. The center is 3%, with a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points more or less.
If inflation stays outside this range for six consecutive months, the BC is considered to have missed the target. This happened after the release of the June IPCA, on July 10th. The monetary authority published an open letter informing that it expects the rate to fall below 4.50% at the end of the first quarter of 2026. The Focus median for 2027 inflation fluctuated from 3.82% to 3.80%. The projection for the 2028 IPCA increased from 3.54% to 3.50%
*With information from Estadão Conteúdo
