A severe crisis is unfolding in Bosnia-Herzegovina. They lifted the sanctions against Milorad Dodik, the Bosnian Serb former president of the “Republika Srpska”, i.e. one of the two components of the country along with the “Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina” which includes Croats and Bosnian Muslims. The sanctions dated back to 2022, under the Joe Biden administration, and were based on the charge that the then president of the “Serbian Republic” (within Bosnia-Herzegovina) was not fully abiding by the terms of the 1995 Dayton Treaty.
The compromise reached is that Dodik will not seek power in the “Serbian Republic” of which he has been president, and in return the sanctions targeting of him and members of his family will be lifted. Dodik appears to be on good terms with US President Donald Trump, whom he thanked through the “X” platform for “correcting a historical injustice” and for proving with his initiative that “the accusations were propaganda.”
It is recalled that the most acute phase of the crisis had occurred after Dodik’s conflict with Christian Schmidt, the German “High Representative” whose mission is to observe the terms of the Dayton Treaty. In the context of this conflict, the court in Bosnia and Herzegovina had sentenced Dodik to prison. Of course, although the sentence was not easy to implement in practice, as Dodik retained power in the “Republika Srpska”, he eventually fell from office, leading to presidential elections being called for November.
With his very frequent trips to Moscow, Dodik is seen as a follower of Russian politics and a personal friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin, which, however, does not seem to prevent him from currently having good relations with US President Donald Trump.
Dodik is said to be a devotee of the trend of ethno-sovereignism that is growing in Eastern Europe, e.g. in Serbia, but also in Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and partly in Poland through its new President, Karol Navrotsky. Dodik characteristically stated in the Russian media that a possible shift of the European Union to a war economy would be an admission of failure.
The fact remains that worse dangers in Bosnia-Herzegovina have been averted for the time being, such as Dodik’s threats of a series of referendums that could even trigger the secession of the “Serbian Republic” from Bosnia-Herzegovina. However, the cautious attitude of Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic towards such a possibility has also played a role in avoiding the most explosive scenarios for the time being.
