After years of advances and setbacks, global actions to curb Earth’s warming are gaining new momentum, but the window to avoid irreversible disasters is rapidly closing
It is accelerating and, while the world is still dealing with the impacts of decades of inaction, the lessons learned from past agreements, such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement, point to an urgent reality. After years of advances and setbacks, global actions to curb the Earth’s warming are gaining new momentum, but the window to avoid irreversible disasters is rapidly closing.
In 2015, during COP21, the city of Paris was the stage for the historic Paris Agreement, where nations committed to limiting the increase in global temperature to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Brazil played a central role in the negotiations, with the active participation of scientists such as Telma Krug, former vice-president of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). According to Krug, the Agreement was a diplomatic milestone, but also a reality test for the world, with the established goals representing significant progress — but still insufficient.
“If we didn’t have , today we would be projected to increase by 4°C”, says Krug. The agreement resulted in a reduction in emissions, but the world is still far from achieving the necessary targets. Currently, global emissions indicate a warming trajectory of 2.8°C, which, although better than the initial forecast, is still unsustainable.
The Challenge of NDCs
NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) are the backbone of the Paris Agreement, with each country committing to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. However, few countries have managed to fulfill their promises. Climatologist José Marengo highlights that the increase in the global average temperature has already reached 1.3°C by 2025, with some regions, such as the Amazon and parts of Africa and Europe, recording increases of more than 2°C. The impact is clear: more extreme heat, drought waves and extreme weather events that directly affect people’s lives, as demonstrated by the heat waves in Europe, which resulted in thousands of deaths.
COP30 and the Need for Urgent Action
COP30, which will take place soon, brings a new challenge: the renewal of NDCs from 2025 onwards. More than 100 countries must present more ambitious plans to reduce their emissions, focusing on tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling energy efficiency, restoring ecosystems and reducing methane emissions. To achieve these goals, it will be necessary to rethink the way we produce, consume and finance energy.
Brazil, for example, has a clean energy matrix, with more than 80% of its electrical energy coming from renewable sources, but continues to face challenges such as deforestation and emissions from the transport and industrial sector. The country has great potential to grow sustainably, using its biodiversity and renewable infrastructure. However, it is necessary to combat deforestation, especially in the Amazon, where the destruction of forests compromises not only climate goals, but also the economy and the future of the planet.
The Energy Transition: Opportunities and Challenges
The world is already experiencing an energy revolution. Solar and wind energy have become cheaper and more efficient, and green hydrogen is emerging as a promising technological frontier. Brazil has great potential to become one of the largest exporters of this new source of clean energy. However, as Patrícia (from COP30) explains, the energy transition faces challenges, especially in developed countries, where replacing traditional sources with renewables is more complex due to dependence on established energy systems.
Infrastructure, training and national technology are essential for Brazil and other countries to advance in the transition to a low-carbon economy.
The Economic Impact of the Climate Crisis
The climate crisis is already generating significant economic losses across the world, with costs totaling hundreds of billions of dollars per year. In Brazil, disasters such as the tragedy in Rio Grande do Sul in 2024, which caused losses in excess of 30 billion reais, show that a lack of adaptation can cost much more than prevention.
The climate is already changing faster than the policies and investments needed to address it. Heat waves, for example, are killing more people than associated respiratory illnesses. In cities like Paris and Rome, the effects of extreme heat have already become a real threat, especially for the most vulnerable: the elderly, children and people with respiratory or heart diseases.
The Need for Prevention and Adaptation
Prevention and adaptation are crucial. Studying climate risks, planning for changes that are already occurring and seeking strategies to reduce population vulnerability are actions that can save lives and reduce economic damage. Brazil, for example, can be a model of sustainable land use, with the integration of agriculture, livestock and forest preservation, creating a socio-economy of standing forests. However, it is essential to combat organized crime that destroys Brazilian biomes, especially in the Amazon, if we want to ensure that the country meets its climate goals.
The Future Is at Stake
The future of the planet is at stake. If we don’t take drastic measures now, we could exceed 1.5°C of warming, and the impacts of this will be irreversible. Deforestation, heat waves and climate disasters are already showing us that the crisis is no longer a future threat, but a present problem. COP30 will be a crucial test to see whether the world is ready to act concretely and immediately, or whether it will continue to be dominated by inaction and a lack of realistic and effective commitments.
