Centrão leaders are betting on senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) withdrawing from the presidential candidacy for the 2026 elections. Analysis is by Edilene Lopes in Hour H.
According to the policy analyst at CNNthe senator would have linked his in the Chamber of Deputies, especially to benefit his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro. “There is no sign that she will walk, and he has nothing to offer,” says Lopes.
For Centrão and part of the right, including members of the PL itself, Flávio Bolsonaro would not be the most competitive name for 2026. The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), is seen as a candidate with greater electoral potential. Another strong name would be that of former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), who would present important strategic advantages.
Advantages of Michelle and Tarcísio
“Flávio has placed his pass too high, he is unable to pay this bill, nor can he bring together those who are from the center or the party members themselves”, highlights the analyst.
According to Edilene Lopes, among the female audience, a segment that shows a certain antipathy towards the Bolsonaro clan, especially towards the former president. The former first lady also has a strong presence among religious people, being considered a conservative who would embrace not only the evangelical public, but also the Catholic one.
Another highlighted point is that Michelle is not seen as a radical figure, which could attract centrist voters. Already on the right to face a possible candidacy from the current government.
The rapporteur of the amnesty project, deputy Paulinho da Força, has already publicly stated that “Bolsonaro is out of the game“, signaling that any proposal to reduce sentences for those involved in the acts of January 8 would not include the former president.
Centrão’s fear, according to the analyst, is that by putting the sentencing dosimetry project to a vote, the PL could highlight an amendment by senator Marcelo Crivella that would include broad amnesty, constraining parliamentarians to take a position on the sensitive topic. For this reason, protecting its parliamentarians from possible political wear and tear.
