Abiy Ahmed
He won a Nobel Peace Prize for ending a war and may be about to start it again. It has “irreversible” objectives — and there are those who stand in its way.
The Ethiopian government’s growing ambition may be reopening hard-to-heal wounds in the Horn of Africa.
In a speech to parliament in late October, the Ethiopian prime minister, Abiy Ahmedpresented Ethiopia as a rapidly modernizing country, pointing to the boom of construction in Addis Ababa and for projects considered strategic. In a context in which, he warns, “Ethiopia’s search for the sea is irreversible“.
“I am absolutely certain that Ethiopia will not remain a country stuck on land”, he reinforced.
The most blatant example, points out , is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), the mega-dam on the Nile, opened in July despite firm opposition from Egypt and Sudan: both fear impacts on the river’s flow.
The head of the Ethiopian Government described the dam as a “harbinger of dawn” capable of reducing dependence on foreign aid — the nation continues to be among the largest recipients of international assistance.
The ambitious list of plans includes a new airport — billed as the largest in Africa — and even a nuclear power plant. But foreign policy is likely to be Ahmed’s biggest challenge.
Ethiopia, a landlocked country since Eritrea’s independence in 1993, has been reaffirming its intention to regain access to the Red Sea, in particular through the territory of Eritrea (with whom he has a lot of bloody history). Old rivalries are returning.
The two countries have a peace agreement in force — which even earned Abiy Ahmed the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 — but now a war has broken out (in words, for now).
In June, Eritrea reported a “war agenda” Ethiopian to seize ports on the Red Sea; Addis Ababa argued that Eritrea was “actively preparing to wage war on it” and accused Asmara of supporting rebel groups in Ethiopia. And Abiy classified the loss of maritime access with the secession of Eritrea as a “mistake” and guaranteed that the situation “will be corrected”.
Currently, around 90% of Ethiopian foreign trade passes through Djibouti, at high costs. For the International Crisis Group, the risk is a climbing due to miscalculationin a scenario that could worsen in the coming months.
After a very bloody two-year war (1998-2000), 70 to 100 thousand dead Later, the two countries signed a peace agreement in December 2000, but it resolved little.
Abiy and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki signed a renewed peace agreement in September 2018. And Ethiopia went to war in 2020, including alongside Eritrean forces, against the ruling party in Tigray, the TPLF (Tigray People’s Liberation Front). Some numbers pointed to a frightening number of deaths: 600 thousand.
The conflict formally ended with the permanent cessation of hostilities agreement signed on November 2, 2022, in Pretoria, which provides, among other points, a ceasefire, demobilization/disarmament measures and unhindered humanitarian access.
But peace is fragile. There are reports and analyzes that Eritrea was unhappy about being excluded from the Pretoria talks and that the issue of the presence/withdrawal of Eritrean forces and the political future of Tigray continue to generate friction.
Ethiopia is the most populous landlocked country in the world and lost direct access to the Red Sea when Eritrea became independent in 1993. Its economy depends heavily on corridors and ports in neighboring countries.
When relations with Eritrea sour, Ethiopia’s claim to access to the sea tends to be read in Asmara as pressure (which has its limits).
