The reorganization of the Brazilian political center returned to the radar last week, driven by the meeting of governors and the undertaking of the de in an environment saturated by polarization. , , . and began to be mentioned as parts of the same project, almost always treated as a block. , in turn, remained in a unique position. Even so, he continued to remain one of the most mentioned names in the presidential succession debate.
This type of center articulation is born with an original contradiction. At the same time as it tries to differentiate itself from the polarization versus Bolsonaro, it depends on it to exist as an alternative. The third way only becomes relevant if there is fatigue with the poles, but it faces structural difficulties in sustaining itself. The movement is led by experienced politicians, but with a low capacity for emotional mobilization.
With data analyzed from more than 100,000 public groups monitored by Palver, this asymmetry appears clearly. Tarcísio de Freitas concentrates, by far, the largest volume of mentions among the actors analyzed. More important than reach is the nature of these mentions. Unlike the others, Tarcísio presents the lowest relative rejection of the group and a balanced distribution between positive, negative and neutral evaluations.
The contrast with the others is significant. Gilberto Kassab and the PSD appear mostly associated with negative evaluations. Ratinho Jr. and Eduardo Leite also face predominant rejection, while Ronaldo Caiado oscillates more intensely, alternating peaks of approval with waves of criticism. None of them can sustain a continuous narrative of enthusiasm.
A relevant part of this rejection is produced. The qualitative analysis of the messages and videos circulating in the groups shows an explicit articulation of the Bolsonarist right that attacks the PSD and any attempt to reorganize the center. The , associated with behind-the-scenes agreements, the support of the Lula government and the betrayal of Bolsonarism. Kassab is introduced, a symbol of a professional politician that would survive any government. Caiado, Ratinho and Leite appear as conscious accomplices in this arrangement, labeled as false right or disguised left.
This sparked the use of the word “treason”, which appears constantly and is framed as abandonment of loyalty, submission to the system and complicity with the federal government. Long and highly emotional videos reinforce the idea that voting for parties associated with the center is equivalent to legitimizing the arrest of those involved in the acts of January 8th and the perpetuation of an allegedly corrupt regime.
At this moment, the right’s strategy is not to dispute the center, but to ban it. And the governor of occupies a different position from other governors. He is the target of harsh criticism, including from Bolsonarism itself, but this criticism takes the form of demanding his loyalty, his hesitation and his willingness to support (PL). This, paradoxically, reinforces its relevance, since loyalty is only demanded from those who matter. Tarcísio is the only name treated simultaneously as a strategic asset and potential risk. It is accepted, as long as you do not become emancipated.
The dispute is between ways of organizing the political field. On one side, an attempt to rebuild the center, on the other a right that seeks to prevent this reorganization, moralizing the debate and transforming any initiative that threatens Flávio’s candidacy as proof of betrayal. In the midst of this conflict, Tarcísio emerges as an exception. Not because it represents the third way, but because it has not yet been completely captured by it. It is precisely this openness that explains why he organizes the debate, even when he tries not to participate in it.
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