The Ibex has written a new page in its history this Monday. The Spanish selective has left behind the initial doubts of the session, has crossed the psychological barrier of 18,000 points for the first time and, moved by euphoria, has climbed to close at 18,100, in a movement that
The index, which had started the day with cuts, has turned strongly and is advancing 1.2%, after having already closed at historic highs last week. The Spanish stock market thus leads the rises of the Old Continent in a session marked, paradoxically, by caution and nervousness in global markets. By value, ArcelorMittal leads the gains of the Ibex with an advance of 3.9%, followed by IAG, with increases of 3.6% and Unicaja, which gains 3%. On the falls side, Solaria stands out, losing 2.5%, Endesa falling 1.4% and Repsol, penalized by the sharp decline in the price of oil, losing 1.2%.
The Ibex rally occurs in a context of high uncertainty. The election of Kevin Warsh as the next president of the Fed has introduced a tone of nervousness in the markets at the beginning of a week full of key references. Added to the avalanche of business results are several central bank meetings—including that of the European Central Bank (ECB)—and relevant macroeconomic data, such as the official employment report in the United States on Friday.
After a clearly negative session in Asia, European stock markets have opted for containment and rose around 0.5%, after a downward start to the session. This somewhat more constructive tone in Europe also carries over to Wall Street, which is trading in the green after a pre-opening that pointed to declines. The contrast with Asia is notable. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed down 2.4%, while Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.23%, despite expectations of a comfortable victory for the Liberal Democratic Party in the upcoming elections, which could facilitate new stimulus policies.
At the macroeconomic level, eurozone GDP grew by 1.5% in 2025, after advancing 0.3% in the fourth quarter. Germany, for its part, registered growth of 0.3% in the last part of the year and closed 2025 with an advance of 0.2%. This Thursday the European Central Bank meeting will take place, at which most economists expect interest rates to remain unchanged at 2%. “While there remains some debate around medium-term inflation risks, we believe the Governing Council will ignore the modest deviations from target caused by energy and maintain rates for the foreseeable future as wage and services inflation continues to normalize,” explains Konstantin Veit, portfolio manager at PIMCO.
In the United States, Wall Street starts February with increases after the close of the European markets, the Dow Jones rose 0.9%, the S&P 500 0.5% and the Nasdaq 0.6%, awaiting the results of large technology companies such as Alphabet, Amazon or AMD, with special attention to the costs and profitability of artificial intelligence after the poor reception of Microsoft’s figures. At the moment, technology companies linked to artificial intelligence are trading with a mixed sign. Nvidia and Meta fell 1%, but AMD advanced 5.5%, Intel 4.4%, Alphabet 1.5%.
Despite the good stock market tone, eyes remain on monetary policy. Much of the current nervousness is explained by the decision of the president of the United States, Donald Trump, to succeed Jerome Powell as head of the Fed. The movement has led the market to review its expectations about monetary policy. From XTB they point out that the appointment “has led the market to anticipate higher interest rates for longer and a stronger dollar”, and add that, with Warsh, “an important change in monetary policy is expected: less decisions based strictly on data and more on economic convictions.”
Along these same lines, Renta 4 points out that Warsh’s election has triggered a general movement of risk aversion, with falls in stock markets, cryptocurrencies and, especially, precious metals. In any case, experts agree that Jerome Powell’s successor will maintain the independence of the central bank and that it should favor the stock markets in the medium term. “Warsh has a more academic than political profile, so his election should help preserve the independence of the Fed, which should calm the bond market and the dollar, while precious metals will have to digest their previous accelerated rises to historical highs,” the Renta 4 experts detail.
In the foreign exchange market, the euro appreciates slightly against the dollar and is trading around 1.1864 greenbacks. Oil, for its part, fell about 5%, after Trump stated that Iran is “seriously negotiating” with Washington, which reduces the risk of a military escalation. The barrel of Brent moves around 65 dollars.
Against this backdrop, investors face a frenetic week, pending the evolution of raw materials markets, the tone of central banks and whether or not the next macroeconomic data confirms the current shift towards a more prudent scenario.
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