Russia has no intention of militarily attacking any NATO country this year or next year, but at the same time it is trying to quickly restore its armed forces, as Europe is also intensifying its armaments. This was stated by the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS) in its annual report, cited by the ERR news website. Estonia, a NATO member neighboring Russia, is one of the harshest critics of Moscow and at the same time a strong supporter of Ukraine, Reuters added, writes TASR.
In short:
- Russia is not planning an attack on NATO countries in the near future
- It quickly restores the armed forces and increases the production of ammunition
- Europe is intensifying armaments and investing in defense and security
“Europe must invest in defense and internal security so that Russia realizes in the future that it has no chance against NATO countries,” EFIS Director General Kaupo Rosin told journalists. According to him, Russian leaders are very concerned about the rearmament of Europe and assume that the European continent could be capable of independent military action against it within two to three years. “Russia’s goal now is to delay and hinder this process,” he added.
Russia increases ammunition production
EFIS pointed out that they are expanding the production of munitions in Russia so quickly that the country will be able to stockpile for future wars while continuing to fight in Ukraine.
The EFIS report also states that a possible Russian attack on Estonia would involve drones “on land, in the air and at sea, simultaneously over the entire territory of Estonia.”
At the same time, the Estonian intelligence service pointed out that the Kremlin continues to consider the US as its main global adversary, while pretending to be willing to cooperate in order to achieve the lifting of US sanctions.
Strategic intentions of Russia and China
“This change resulted from the Kremlin’s ambition to use the new US administration to restore bilateral relations and push for a solution that would formally confirm the defeat of Ukraine,” the EFIS report reads.
“Despite this illusory warming, Russia’s goals remain unchanged: it seeks to marginalize the US and NATO and reshape the European security architecture in its own way,” the report said.
EFIS notes that China sees Russia as a useful ally to marginalize the West and a source of energy should its conflict with Taiwan lead to sanctions or a naval blockade. Both countries share research in the field of military technology. “Any concessions to Russia would actually further China’s global ambitions as well,” the report concludes.
