It’s true that research is photography of the moment. It does not predict the future or replace voting. However, successive photographs reveal movement and, in politics, movement usually precedes results.
Who will win the October elections? Lula or Flávio Bolsonaro? In a divided country, the question stopped being a curiosity and became an emotional thermometer. With each new survey, expectations, fears and electoral calculations are rekindled. But to what extent do these numbers anticipate what will happen at the polls?
It’s true that research is photography of the moment. It does not predict the future or replace voting. However, successive photographs reveal movement and, in politics, movement usually precedes results. The succession of portraits allows us to observe whether there is consolidation, erosion or silent displacement of the electorate.
Lessons from the latest elections
When observing the last six presidential elections, a relevant fact emerges: except in 2010 and 2018, the candidate who was leading at the beginning of the year confirmed victory.
In 2002, Lula registered around 34%, against Serra’s 22%, and won. In 2006, he led with approximately 47%, while Alckmin had 21%, and confirmed the advantage. In 2014, Dilma had 41% compared to Aécio’s 17% and consolidated her leadership. In 2022, Lula had 43%, Bolsonaro 25%, and the pattern repeated itself.
The dynamism of elections
Exceptions help you understand the rule. In 2010, Serra led with 36%, Dilma had 27%, but the PT member showed continuous growth throughout the year and changed the game. In 2018, Lula had around 35% against Bolsonaro’s 17%, but his ineligibility completely reconfigured the electoral scenario.
The historical pattern is not magical, but it is instructive: either the leader remains consolidated, or the runner-up grows with enough consistency to change the balance. Elections are rarely decided by stagnation.
Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro
Today, polls indicate a technical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. The difference is within the margin of error. However, the margin is not the only relevant indicator. More important than the numerical distance is the direction of the curve. Successive growth in different surveys suggests a trend. Isolated oscillation may just be statistical noise.
There is also a factor that is little discussed: the behavior of spontaneous voting. When progress also appears in this indicator, the movement tends to be more structural than circumstantial. Added to this is the so-called “incumbency effect”: presidents who run for re-election or maintain a strong institutional presence start from a high level, but also face greater natural wear and tear. The opposition camp tends to grow when it manages to unify expectations and channel diffuse dissatisfactions.
Alexis de Tocqueville observed that great political transformations rarely announce themselves with a bang; they advance almost imperceptibly until, when perceived, they already become reality. The electorate also moves like this: first slowly, then decisively.
The influence of other candidates
Other variables may still interfere. Names like Zema, Caiado, Michelle Bolsonaro, Ratinho and Eduardo Leite do not appear as leaders today, but they influence portions of the electorate. If they choose not to run, it is reasonable to assume that a significant part of their voters will migrate to the opposition camp, changing the current balance.
The same goes for regional alliances, economic performance in the coming months and possible political crises, capable of producing abrupt changes in the collective mood.
Does this mean the election is already decided? Evidently not. But ignoring early trends can be as reckless as treating them as a crystallized sentence.
Mid-year photography
If the historical pattern repeats itself, the candidate who reaches the middle of the year demonstrating consistent traction will enter the final stretch with a psychological and political advantage. If there is consolidation of leadership, the probability of confirmation increases. In politics, the future rarely appears out of nowhere; it starts as a trend.
The question, therefore, perhaps is not just who leads today, but who is building tomorrow, and in which direction the electorate begins to move. Follow on Instagram: @polito
*This text does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Jovem Pan.
