Concern about humanity’s slide into a new era of generalized conflict now dominates the collective consciousness of Western societies, according to the findings of an extensive poll by .
The survey, which was conducted in a sample of voters from the US, Canada, the UK, France and Germany, reveals a dramatic shift in the public’s perception of security, with an overwhelming majority believing that the world is becoming increasingly dangerous. It is telling that in most of the participating countries, the possibility of a Third World War breaking out within the next five years is now considered the most common scenario.
This shift is particularly noticeable when compared with corresponding data from March 2025. As Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First, points out, the change in public attitudes reflects a sense of an unstable international environment, where traditional alliances seem shaken and war is no longer a distant possibility but a visible possibility. In the UK and US, the percentages of those predicting a global conflict by 2031 have risen sharply to 43% and 46% respectively, with Germany the only exception where the majority remain modestly optimistic.
The main threats are Russia and Trump
Despite the apparent concern, the poll highlights an important political paradox that is expected to preoccupy the Munich Security Conference. While citizens are in favor of boosting defense budgets, that support evaporates when the question of economic cost comes up. Willingness to make sacrifices decreases dramatically in the face of the possibility of increased taxation, public debt or cuts in social services. That puts European leaders in a difficult position as they must bolster national security at a time of fiscal austerity, while confidence in strategic cover from the US appears to be waning.
On the threat front, Russia continues to be seen as the main threat to European peace amid the protracted war in Ukraine. However, the suspicion towards Washington’s foreign policy under the administration of Donald Trump is notable. Canadian voters rank the US as the biggest threat to their security, while in France, Germany and Britain, America is seen as a bigger risk factor than China. US military engagements on multiple fronts, from Venezuela to the Middle East, are fueling the belief that NATO’s nuclear powers are headed for conflict, with one in three respondents fearing even the use of nuclear weapons in the coming years.
