Reduce Arctic geopolitics to the idea that Donald Trump wants to buy GreenlandIt is, according to the Italian journalist and essayist Marzio Mian, an error of approach. The Danish island is a coveted piece, but the fight for the High North does not only pit Washington against Copenhagen or Brussels: Russia and China They have been consolidating positions for years in a region that concentrates strategic resources y military advantages decisive.
According to scientific estimates, “the Arctic houses about 30% of the planet’s undiscovered resources”Mian, author of ‘The White War: on the Arctic Front of the World Conflict’, recalled this Wednesday during a conference at the Barcelona Centre for International Affairs (CIDOB). This potential—hydrocarbons, rare earths, critical minerals for the energy transition—has transformed an area that for decades functioned as a space for relatively stable cooperation in the colonial frontier of the 21st centurywhere the climate crisis, military rivalry and the reconfiguration of the international order converge. The consequence, he warned, is that this region has become “the epicenter of a geopolitical earthquake”where even the cohesion of the I’LL TAKE begins to be questioned.
Beyond Trump
The president of CIDOB, Joseph Borrellemphasized the importance of opening the horizon to understand the geopolitics of the Arctic. “This is not about Trump taking on Europe,” he said. In his opinion, the focus should not be limited to the transatlantic clash, but rather to a structural dynamic in which territorial ambitions and strategic competition come together. “It is clear that there is a colonialist component in Trump’s demands”he pointed out. “Is as if Spain were trying to dispute its sovereignty with Mexico”he added, referring to Greenland.
For Mian, American interest is only part of the picture. Russia considers the Arctic its economic and strategic “life insurance”: approximately half of its GDP and their exports depend on activities located north of the Polar Circle. Moscow has reactivated military bases, deployed nuclear icebreaker and concentrated submarines strategic points on the Kola Peninsula. The thaw opens new routes, such as the Northern Maritime Route, and reinforces it as an energy power.
China, for its part, defines itself as a “State near the Arctic”, recalls Mian, and acts accordingly. Participate as an observer in the Arctic Council and has promoted the call Polar Silk Roadlinked to its global infrastructure strategy. It has invested billions in projects liquefied natural gas on the Russian Yamal Peninsula and has shown interest in mining and infrastructure in Greenland and Iceland. Sino-Russian cooperation in the north combines capital, technology and access to resources.
The balance of the Svalbard archipelago
One of the most sensitive points is Svalbardlow archipelago norwegian sovereignty in the Arctic Ocean, governed by a 1920 treaty that recognizes the administration of Oslo but guarantees equal access to resources for the signatory states, including Spain, which thus acquired formal exploitation rights.
Although military use is limited, the balance becomes fragile, Mian warned, in a context of increasing militarization and dispute over strategic minerals on the ocean floor.
Russia maintains a civilian presence in the archipelago and questions certain Norwegian interpretations of exclusive economic zones and resource exploitation. The Legal ambiguity makes Svalbard a potential source of friction at a time when the nuclear arms control regime is weakening and distrust between blocs increases.
The Canadian North and the Atlantic fracture
The Arctic front is not limited to Europe. In it canadian northlas tensions between Ottawa and Washington They revolve around the control of the Northwest Passage and the delimitation of maritime sovereignty. He Ice retreat transforms historically impassable routes in commercial and strategic corridors, with direct implications for continental security.
According to Mian, the call “Arctic exceptionalism”—the idea that the region was left out of major confrontations—has been overcome. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 accelerated the split between an expanded Western bloc and a Russia increasingly aligned with China. The Arctic today acts as a condenser of global tensions: energy, climate, technology and nuclear deterrence come together in the same space.
The result is a scenario in which The thaw not only modifies physical maps, but also strategic balances. Greenland symbolizes the dispute, but the conflict is broader: it’s about who sets the rules on the planet’s last great frontier.
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