The capture by United States forces led the government (PT) to carry out an extensive recalculation of routes and scenario analyzes in the military field. The Brazilian president expressed concern about the American operation and asked the Armed Forces to assess Brazil’s vulnerability.
met with military personnel and received a diagnosis of Brazilian capabilities. The table pointed out, for example, that the country does not have enough anti-aircraft defense equipment to serve as a deterrent to foreign action.
The panorama of Brazilian defense has changed rapidly in the last two years in the face of the Maduro factor. At the end of 2023, when the (Essequibo region) mobilized planes, troops, armored cars and missiles to the border region.
At that time, Brazilian intelligence sectors had detected the possibility of Maduro commanding one by land – which would mean passing through national territory.
In the words of authorities who closely followed this reality, the movement carried out by them was a deterrence maneuver, seeking to prevent one country —a — from invading another —Guyana. Two years later, this happened, but with Maduro’s country in the opposite position, in the condition of .
The president of the , , ordered a military attack in Caracas – in an unprecedented intervention against – and the capture of the leader of the Venezuelan political regime, on January 3, so that the dictator can be tried, in New York, for alleged crimes related to drug trafficking.
Lula asked the military commands to read scenarios about the invasion in the neighboring country, expressed concern about what had happened and requested an assessment of Brazil’s vulnerability in the event of such a military action on Brazilian territory.
The concern expressed was with the more immediate situation and with the, according to military and civilian personnel who followed the developments around the president following Trump’s offensive on Venezuela, motivated by the .
On January 15, a meeting at the Palácio do Planalto was called by Lula for the late afternoon – and continued into the early evening – to discuss scenarios in the military field, after the capture of Maduro by American soldiers.
Participating in the meeting with the president were the Minister of Defense; the Army commander, Tomás Miguel Paiva; the Navy commander, Admiral Marcos Sampaio Olsen; the Air Force commander, Brigadier Marcelo Damasceno; and the chief of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the Armed Forces, Admiral Renato Rodrigues Freire.
These names appear on Lula’s public agenda. , special advisor to the president for international affairs, also participated in the meeting. He was already Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister of Defense in past PT administrations and has close contact and dialogue with figures from the Venezuelan regime, including Maduro himself.
Lula expressed concern about the operation carried out in Caracas and the vulnerabilities in the event of a military action of this type in Brazil, although he does not consider that the country is at risk of this type, according to government members interviewed by the Sheet under the condition of anonymity. Even so, the president asked for scenario assessments.
The PT member heard that the country does not have its own air defense to resist an offensive like the one seen in Caracas. It is a current analysis among high-ranking military personnel, in the sense that nothing could be done in the event of air offensives by a country with military power like the United States.
Military personnel aware of what was discussed at Planalto say that the negotiations were seen as emergencies, given what happened in Caracas, a motivating factor for the request for plans and projects that offer the minimum deterrence in the military sphere.
An investment plan was then presented by the Minister of Defense and the commanders of the Armed Forces, for the long term. This plan was made public by the military, who saw the unprecedented animosity in South America as a form of pressure to .
The plan foresees investments of R$800 billion over 15 years, with budgetary linkage, which would mean R$53.3 billion per year.
The value is much higher, for example, than predicted for the national defense program: almost R$15 billion in 2026, according to the budget approved by the National Congress for the Ministry of Defense.
It also exceeds what is foreseen in the Budget for investments – R$ 8 billion this year – and the exception in the fiscal framework, approved by law, for strategic national defense projects – R$ 30 billion over the next six years.
According to authorities with access to the president, Lula liked the plan and began analyzing it in the following days. The current understanding is that all countries are not vulnerable, and that Brazil is even more vulnerable than Venezuela.
The difference is that Lula does not “stretch the rope” as Maduro did, according to the analysis carried out by members of the government. On the contrary.
A third scenario has already appeared on the horizon for months, very different from the animosity surrounding Essequibo and a drastic measure such as the American military intervention to capture Maduro. And this happened through diplomatic channels. , maintain a direct communication channel and are scheduled to meet in March at the White House.
