Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Ground Force Commandos
Iran does not want war, but says it is ready to respond, while negotiating with Washington. A military reorganization, a huge effort to reinforce security and a new campaign of repression are already underway.
As tensions rise, the Iranian regime is trying to maintain two fronts: on the one hand, it seeks to reach a nuclear deal with the United States; on the other, it is accelerating military, political and internal security preparations for a scenario of collapse of negotiations and possible war. This time, not only foreign policy or the nuclear program is at stake, but the very survival of the regime.
The country is strengthening military positions, decentralizing the chain of command, tightening the protection of nuclear infrastructures and intensifying internal repression in the face of recent violent protests.
Farzan Sabet, an analyst cited by , describes the situation as the worst military threat faced by Iran since the end of the war with Iraq in 1988. Tehran is placing the security apparatus and political leadership on “high alert” to prevent an attack that decapitates the chain of command and to protect strategic nuclear centers.
Although Iran has made some concessions in the negotiations, signals coming from Washington indicate that the distance between the two’s positions remains very large. US Vice President JD Vance said the Iranian proposals fall short of the red lines set by the US, which require Tehran to lose the ability to manufacture a nuclear weapon. Although the Iranian foreign minister has publicly spoken of progress, Iranian officials admit that the gap between what Tehran accepts and what Washington demands could be impossible to overcome. Iran does not want war, but says it is ready to respond.
Military reorganization
According to the WSJ, the Revolutionary Guard announced the reactivation of the so-called “mosaic defense”which gives greater autonomy to commanders on the ground to make decisions and issue orders. The objective is to reduce the vulnerability of the military structure to surgical attacks that target leadership and interrupt the chain of command.
Naval units of the Revolutionary Guard were deployed to , one of the most sensitive points in global energy trade, through which around a fifth of global oil passes. Images released by state-linked media showed cruise missiles being launched from the coast and from vessels, with oil tankers visible in the background. The naval commander of the Revolutionary Guard, Alireza Tangsiri, assured that the strait is under permanent surveillance. Additionally, a Russian warship arrived in the zone and docked in Bandar Abbas ahead of joint military exercises.
These exercises take place near the US aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, off Oman.
The deal with Israel, in June, exposed Iran’s important weaknesses, namely conventional military inferiority and the limits of its regional allies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon. But on the other hand, the conflict will have served to test and adjust Iranian military tactics, and this also includes the effectiveness of long-range missiles.
Iran has around 2,000 medium-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel. It also has significant arsenals of short-range missiles, capable of reaching US bases in the Gulf and ships in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as anti-ship missiles and torpedo boats.
The country has also tested anti-aircraft defense systems in exercises in response to drone and missile attacks against sensitive sites, including nuclear facilities. Spaces that could serve as anti-aircraft shelters were also identified, such as metro stations and car parks, in an attempt to respond to criticism from the population, who accuse the State of not having guaranteed adequate protection during previous attacks.
Another central axis of Iranian preparation is the protection of nuclear infrastructures. Satellite images analyzed by the Institute for Science and International Security, an analysis center based in Washington, indicate that Tehran is strengthening access to tunnels and installations in several strategic locations. Among them is Isfahanwhere Iran allegedly stored a significant portion of its highly enriched uranium and which was heavily damaged in US and Israeli attacks last summer. Images collected show work to stiffen tunnel entrances and improve the physical resistance of structures.
The same is happening in the underground complex known as “Pickaxe Mountain“, a system of deep tunnels that, according to Western officials, could be linked to undeclared nuclear work, including possible uranium enrichment. The images show the movement of dump trucks, concrete mixers and cranes, which suggests operations to deposit concrete, rock and earth at the entrances. The objective is to cushion the impact of aerial bombings and hinder possible ground operations by special forces that try to capture or destroy sensitive nuclear material.
The same report cited by the WSJ also refers to the recent construction of a concrete structure over a building in Parchin military complexassociated in the past with work related to the Iranian nuclear program and which had already been targeted by Israel.
Avoid new popular uprising
To try to prevent a scenario of new mass protests, the Revolutionary Guard and the intelligence services created around 100 surveillance points around Tehran.
The repression of protests remains a priority. Security forces are reportedly continuing searches for participants in last month’s demonstrations — including in schools — and have asked hospitals for health records to identify people treated for protest-related injuries.
More than 53 thousand arrests since the beginning of the protests and more than 7 thousand deaths were confirmed by the US-based human rights organization HRAI.
