Despite the growth in inventories, the Brazilian real estate market ended 2025 with records in launches and sales of vertical residential properties, even in a scenario of high interest rates, and the expectation is that 2026 will at least beat the good results of the previous year. The impressions and data are part of the National Real Estate Indicators for the 4th quarter of 2025, released by the Brazilian Chamber of the Construction Industry (CBIC), this Monday (23).
Throughout 2025, 453,005 residential units were launched, an increase of 10.6% compared to 2024. The overall value launched (VGL) totaled R$292.3 billion.
For CBIC advisor and chief economist at Secovi-SP, Celso Petrucci, the performance shows that developers reacted directly to demand, even in a more expensive credit environment.
“Despite the interest rate, 2025 was a year of records. The developer continued to feel the strong demand and continued launching”, stated Petrucci.
The vertical residential developments monitored by the research reached 221 cities in the country.
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On the sales side, the sector also recorded historic marks. In the 4th quarter of 2025, 109 thousand residential units were sold, the highest volume ever observed for a quarter. Year-to-date, sales totaled 426,260 units, an increase of 5.4% compared to 2024, setting another annual record.
In terms of value, the sector generated R$67 billion in sales in the 4th quarter alone. In the year, PSV (General Sales Value) reached R$264.2 billion, growth of 3.5% compared to 2024.
Regionally, in the 12-month period, the Southeast led sales, with 220,087 units, followed by the South (89,769 units), Northeast (80,111 units), Central-West (23,540 units) and North (12,753 units).
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Stock rises, but flow remains below a year
The final supply of vertical residential properties available at the end of the 4th quarter of 2025 was 347,013 units, an increase of 7.2% compared to the same period in 2024. It is the highest level since the 4th quarter of 2023.
Despite the increase in stock, the supply flow time – an indicator that estimates how many months the current stock would be sold while maintaining the sales pace – was 9.8 months in the 4th quarter of 2025.
According to Fábio Tadeu Araújo, partner director of Brain Intelligence Estratégica, responsible for the research, this level still indicates a relatively healthy market when compared to periods of crisis.
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“It’s a quick drain, lasting less than a year. During the peak of the cancellation season, in 2016 and 2017, this indicator was almost 30 months, that was a crisis”, said Araújo.
The current runoff time is the longest since the 4th quarter of 2024, when the indicator was at 9 months. In the 2nd quarter of 2025, the index fell to 8.3 months.
My Home My Life gains even more weight
The Minha Casa Minha Vida (MCMV) program played a central role in supporting the market in 2025. Launches within the program grew 13.9% compared to 2024, while sales increased 15.1% in the same period.
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During the year, 228,842 vertical units were launched under the MCMV, an increase of 13.5% in the annual comparison, and 196,876 units were sold, an increase of 15.9%. At the end of 2025, the program ended the year with a record 69,168 units launched in the 4th quarter.
MCMV’s participation is most relevant in the North and Northeast regions, where it has established itself as the main pillar of housing production. In the North, the program accounts for 69% of the sector and in the Northeast, 50%.
The flow of supply in MCMV is even faster than the general average, at 7.9 months. The average price of units in the program was R$202,500.
Prices rise 18.6% in 12 months and detach from inflation
The data presented by CBIC also shows a strong appreciation of residential properties in the country. According to Petrucci, prices have been moving away from the main inflation indices since last year.
“FGV and Abecip capture the IGMI-R, which shows an accumulated variation of 18.6% in the last 12 months, very detached from the IPCA, of 4.26%, and the INCC, of 5.9%. Since 2024 we have noticed a detachment in the real estate variation. The acquisition of the property continues to be advantageous and the real appreciation of the property has been quite high”, he said.
Positive outlook for 2026
CBIC assesses that the projection of potential demand remains high, supported by the record level of purchase intention and the role of Minha Casa Minha Vida.
For 2026, the sector is working with a , with the expectation of a further drop in the Selic rate and an improvement in real estate credit conditions. The government’s goal of contracting 3 million units through the MCMV by the end of the year, combined with the FGTS budget guarantee, is seen as an important vector for sustaining demand.
Furthermore, the expansion of funding via SBPE and the capital market, with a projected growth of 16% by Abecip, should contribute to a gradual warming of the market throughout the year.
In this context, the assessment of sector representatives is that the real estate market in 2026 could outperform that in 2025which has already been marked by records in launches and sales, resilient demand and consolidation of Minha Casa Minha Vida as a central pillar of activity.
