After , the year begins in earnest, and this is a year of . If in recent weeks the news was divided between parades, revelry and behind the scenes, now political actors are beginning to test their weapons and narratives. There is also a lot of expectation that the opponent’s mistake can be taken advantage of. It is also the moment when political alliances begin to be defined, in which every gesture, every speech and also silence serve to read the scenario.
In this context, the president faced a setback with , a school that took a plot in his honor to the avenue. Although already expected, the episode, which could have been restricted to Carnival, quickly became a political instrument. In the more than 100,000 public Telegram groups analyzed in real time by , among the opinionated messages on the topic, 54% were critical of the school and Lula.
The opposition’s main narrative was that the , with accusations of early campaigning and misuse of culture for political purposes. Even though there is a relevant portion defending artistic freedom, the episode was exploited as a sign of wear and tear.
But the topic that has really dominated the debate is another. The institutional crisis involving the eo remains the main axis of engagement in the groups. Among the opinion statements over the last seven days, more than 99% were critical of the court and ministers. This is a scenario in which any politician will want to avoid having their name involved in the crisis at all costs.
The main targets are and , especially after the circulation of content that associates them with , from Banco Master. The predominant narrative is that of “shielding” and “institutional protection”, often accompanied by questions about impartiality. The average radicalization of critical messages exceeds that of the other themes analyzed. Therefore, it is the main political agenda at the beginning of the electoral game.
In the right-wing camp, the internal conflict creates instability and a split in the supporter base. The recent clashes involving , and totaled 75% of criticism, while 25% called for conciliation between the parties, the famous “let it go” group. The majority of criticisms, 84%, do not contain explicit insults, but rather accusations of sabotage, vanity or misdirection.
When looking at who is most attacked on the right in the last seven days, but more broadly, the data shows that they appear as a direct target in 64% of criticism within the public groups analyzed by Palver, followed by Nikolas (18%), Eduardo (16%) and Michelle (2%). Eduardo has demanded more emphatic support for Flávio’s campaign and pointed out the lack of alignment as a strategic problem. Nikolas, in turn, reacted and maintained his position, fueling the perception of a split. This leads to an increase in criticism coming from both the opposition and the right itself.
The electoral dispute, therefore, begins with Lula carrying the advantage of being the incumbent, but having to face the hostile and slippery environment in the STF issue and a slight attrition in the Carnival episode, which will only worsen if it has repercussions in the Electoral Court in view of the . Flávio tries to capitalize on discontent with the government and gain support in the midst of institutional crises, in addition to having to mediate internal conflicts on the right.
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