Last Sunday (22), Mexican federal forces carried out an operation in the state of Jalisco, in the west of the country, with the aim of arresting Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho“considered the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel and one of the most wanted men on the continent.
The operation resulted in the death of , as announced later that afternoon. The Federal Secretary of Security, Omar García Harfuchdeclared at a press conference on Monday (23) that 30 criminal suspects, 25 members of the National Guard, a prison guard, a local prosecutor’s office employee and a civilian were also killed in Jalisco. He added that four other criminal suspects had died in Michoacán and that there had been 85 roadblocks in 11 states.
Also on Sunday, the Federal Security Office reported that vehicles were also set on fire and that attacks were carried out against gas stations and other commercial establishments. Some companies and institutions in Jalisco and other regions decided to suspend activities such as flights, bus services and classes at the beginning of the week.
Given this situation, what led the president’s government to launch the operation against El Mencho now, especially considering that there are only three and a half months left until the start of the , which Mexico will co-organize with the USA and the Canadaand in which Guadalajara, capital of Jalisco, will be one of the host cities?
Sources interviewed by CNN believe that at least three factors influenced this decision: the opportunity that Mexican authorities saw to act now, the calculation that they could face a violent reaction from the CJNG and pressure from the United States, where the president Donald Trump insists Mexico must do more against drug cartels.
A window of opportunity
Armando Vargascoordinator of the Security Program of the non-governmental organization México Evalúa, considered that, based on the official information provided so far, the government estimated that this was the right time to act against “El Mencho”, even with the proximity of the World Cup, which will have its opening match on June 11 in Mexico City.
“It seems to me that Mexico made a calculation where the numbers were in its favor; there was no better opportunity to capture him. In other words, the intelligence conditions led to an extraordinary location and execution capability,” he said.
The operation against “El Mencho” took place in the mountainous region of Tapalpa, one of the 125 municipalities of , the state from where the Jalisco New Generation Cartel expanded its criminal activities.
Mexico’s Secretary of Defense, Ricardo Trevillaprovided some details about the operation. In a press conference, he stated that military intelligence detected that one of “El Mencho’s” partners arrived at a property in Tapalpa on February 20, where she met with him. The next day, Trevilla added, the woman left the location, and the Army confirmed that “El Mencho” remained there with his security team.
After that, the operation to arrest him was planned for Sunday. According to Trevilla, Army special forces arrived at the scene, where they were met with “a very violent attack” that resulted in a confrontation and several deaths. The criminal and some of his bodyguards tried to flee into a wooded area, where they were surrounded, injured and arrested.
“As soon as the situation was under control, the military medical team went to the location where he and his security team were, including their two injured bodyguards. They determined that it was necessary to evacuate them as they were in critical condition. A helicopter was requested to land and transport them to a medical center in Jalisco. ‘El Mencho’, his two bodyguards and the injured officer were transported. Unfortunately, they passed away en route,” said Trevilla.
El Mencho’s body was transferred to Mexico City, where the Attorney General’s Office confirmed your identification .
In addition to seeking the opportune moment to act against “El Mencho”, Mexican authorities estimated that they could face a violent response from their cartel, indicated analysts consulted.
“Knowing that there would be a reaction, the Mexican State nevertheless calculated that it has the capacity, perhaps in collaboration with the United States through intelligence services, to contain the disturbance, maintain governance and restore it in a short period,” said Vargas.
“I believe that the Mexican government made the decision through a rational calculationknowing that he was capable of containing the conflict and that there was no better opportunity to capture ‘El Mencho’. Perhaps this opportunity would not arise after , and doing it in a month or a few weeks would have been disastrous in economic terms,” he added.
During Sunday night and Monday morning, Mexican authorities reported that most roadblocks and other violent incidents were under control. They also noted that activities such as flights and bus services had resumed normal operations.
Gustavo Lopez Montielprofessor of Political Science at the Instituto Tecnológico de Monterrey, agreed with Vargas that, before launching the operation against ‘El Mencho’, the government calculated that it could repel a reaction from the CJNG, one of the most violent organizations on the continent, which on other occasions has reacted to attempts to capture its leaders.
The academic also highlighted that the current situation differs from that experienced in Sinaloa since the second half of 2014, when the capture of Ismael Zambadaalso known as ‘El Mayo’, triggered clashes between rival factions of the Sinaloa Cartelleading to an increase in homicides in the state. According to López Montiel, there are no internal conflicts — at least not visible —, which reduces the likelihood that the death of “El Mencho” will lead to a scenario similar to that which followed the arrest of “El Mayo.”
In the context of the operation against “El Mencho”, the analysts consulted also take into account the weight of the United States in the country’s security policy.
Since Trump began his second presidential term in 2025, he has insisted that Mexico must do more against criminals and has even suggested that American forces could carry out operations on Mexican soil. Sheinbaum rejected this possibility — which she considers a violation of national sovereignty — and, this Monday, during a press conference, she acknowledged that there was an exchange of information with the United States before the operation, but insisted that the deployment was exclusively of Mexican forces .
López Montiel considered that pressure from the United States was essential for Mexico to decide to act now against “El Mencho”, a man for whom Washington was offering a reward of US$15 million since designating his cartel as a terrorist organization.
“The operation against El Mencho allows the president to gain time not only in his relationship with the United States, but also in the context of the tariffs that were removed from Trump’s budget last week,” he said.
In this line of reasoning, Javier Olivasecurity expert and professor at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, highlighted that it is now necessary to pay attention to how Trump will respond to Mexico’s coup against the CJNG.
“In colloquial terms, it’s his turn to act. To see how he reacts to this conflict in which 25 members of the Mexican Army and National Guard died. Let’s see what his contribution will be, beyond empty statements and bellicose stances,” he said.
