Tensions between the United States and Iran continue to escalate, amid agreement negotiations that have been going on for almost a month. In a State of the Union address to Congress on Monday night, President Donald like Iran’s nuclear programs. For Bradesco BBI, even with the hostile climate between the countries, the possibility of a large-scale conflict is low.
For analysts – who made considerations after speaking with Hagai M. Segal, advisor on geopolitics, counterterrorism and the Middle East –, factors on both sides of the conflict reduce the real chances of a possible war. On the United States side, even though Trump seems more than willing to attack the Middle Eastern country, the internal political risk of starting a new war is greater than ideal. On the eve of the midterm elections, starting a large-scale conflict would contradict his “America First” (or America Firstin the original text).
During the campaign, the president made a commitment to avoid prolonged conflicts in the Middle East, such as attacks on Iraq or Afghanistan. According to BBI, mid-term voter polls are no longer favorable to the Republican Party and starting a conflict like this could deepen the political crisis.
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On the Iranian side, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said this Tuesday (24) that a . At the same time, the country has already threatened to attack North American bases in the region, if attacked. According to the BBI, given Iran’s limited defensive capabilities, the country would have the capacity to escalate a broader regional conflict, affecting important US allies.
“Iran signals that any response would focus less on direct military parity and more on asymmetric escalation,” the analysts explain. This strategy would prioritize attacks on American bases, putting pressure on regional allies via maritime chokepoints, for example. According to the bank, even occasional short-term interruptions could generate significant increases in strategic points for the US, such as oil prices and instability in global trade.
For the BBI, the challenge of diplomatic negotiations comes from the obstacle of Iran avoiding imposing restrictions on ballistic missiles. Therefore, a further escalation of tensions may more likely result in limited and targeted attacks, rather than a regime change operation or a full-scale war.
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According to Reuters, a senior US official said negotiations are scheduled for Thursday (26) in Geneva, with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner expected to meet with an Iranian delegation.
