The process to elect the Shiite cleric who will succeed Ali Khamenei has already begun in Iran, confirming that the Islamic Republic, the cornered political system that has ruled the country for the last 47 years, had foreseen this moment the possibility of Israel and the United States, 86 years old. With his death already confirmed by Tehran, this is indicated by the speed with which the tripartite transitional power that has assumed the very broad functions of the deceased head of state has been completed until his successor is appointed. At least formally, given the complicated network of power in Iran and the difficult balance between the clerical establishment, the supreme leader’s clique, the security forces and the country’s elected institutions such as the presidency.
The three members of that triumvirate that make up the so-called Leadership Council; the hard-line ultra-conservative head of the Judiciary, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, and the Islamic jurist Alireza Arifi, the last to be appointed, whose appointment was announced today by the semi-official ISNA news agency.
The three members of this council do not allow, for the moment, to predict major changes in a regime in a state of war in which the powerful Iranian parallel army, the Revolutionary Guard, will probably increase its already important share of political power. Of these three names, the least radical is that of Pezeshkián, a doctor without charisma turned politician who is usually presented as a moderate in the West but who, in no case, has dared to oppose, at least publicly, Khamenei’s orders.
The head of the Iranian Judiciary, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, is considered, for his part, a hawk of the most radical and ultra-conservative wing of the Islamic Republic. Both the European Union and the United States sanctioned him for his role in crushing demonstrations over electoral fraud in 2009 and he is believed to have also played a key role in the repression of the latest demonstrations against the regime in which at least 7,000 people died in January; 3,117, according to the official figure. His dismal human rights record includes, according to Amnesty International, participating in the murders of thousands of imprisoned opponents in Iran in 1988. In January, he threatened protesters that there would be “no mercy” for them.
Less known in the West than the previous two, Arafi, 67, is a cleric who is believed to have been a close confidant of Khamenei. He is the vice president of the Assembly of Experts, the body that brings together 88 religious and that will elect the successor of the supreme leader. Arafi has also been a member of the powerful Guardian Council, which has veto power over electoral candidates and laws passed by Parliament. He also holds the position of director of the network of Islamic seminaries in Iran.
By completing this tripartite power in a few hours, the Islamic Republic is trying to fill the power vacuum left by Khamenei, the leader who ruled Iran with an iron fist for 36 years and who does not have an officially elected successor, although it is believed that he nominated several possible candidates, already during the 12 days of Israeli bombing in June, to which the United States joined. Without any confirmation of their identities so far, what is known is mere speculation.
In the hands of the leader
The body that must elect the new supreme leader, the Assembly of Experts, is made up of 88 clerics who must demonstrate extensive knowledge of Islamic law. The Iranian Constitution provides that the new leader must necessarily be a man, since he must be a cleric – women are prohibited, not only from that position, but also from the presidency and the judiciary. That religious must demonstrate political competence, moral authority and, most importantly, loyalty to the Islamic Republic.
The process that is now being opened, who knows for how long, has only been carried out once since 1979, when the Islamic Republic was established. It was ten years later, when its founder, Ruhollah Khomeini, died and Khamenei, as a religious figure that the supreme leader should have, was hastily chosen.
The Israeli and American bombings, which continued with force this Sunday, also complicate the election of that successor. Any meeting, be it of the Assembly of Experts, or of the Leadership Council now in charge of running the country, could be an opportunity for Israel and the United States to bomb and kill provosts of the regime, given the high degree of infiltration of Israeli intelligence in Iran that was evident on Saturday with the death of Khamenei.
Nor can we expect that, at least a priori, the profile of the new leader will be groundbreaking or even especially moderate or progressive. The Constitution of the Islamic Republic is designed in such a way that the living supreme leader has a decisive influence on the selection of his successor.
This influence is protected through the mechanism of election of the 88 clerics of the Assembly of Experts, who must pass the prior screening of the Council of Guardians, made up of 12 jurists. Of them, six are appointed directly by the leader, while the other half are chosen by Parliament, but from a list of candidates previously selected by the head of the judiciary. That position is also appointed directly by the supreme leader, who thus directly or indirectly controls all members of the Council. Furthermore, only the six Shiite jurists of that Council of Guardians, appointed in this case by the late Khamenei, can approve the clergy candidates for the Assembly of Experts.
This circular structure almost completely shields the ideological continuity of the system since it seems unlikely that those jurists chosen by Khamenei for their loyalty and ideological affinity could designate a successor who departs from the vision of the Islamic Republic of the president assassinated this Saturday.
