The assassination of Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei represents a pivotal moment in understanding the future of the Iranian regime and its geopolitical implications for the Middle East.
William Waackin his analysis, drew a historical parallel between the founder of the Iranian Revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini, and the According to him, while Khomeini personified the idea and charisma of the Islamic revolution, Khamenei represented the “ossification” and consolidation of the regime, occupying the top of an extensive bureaucratic, military and administrative structure.
“Khamenei was at the top of a huge bureaucratic, military, administrative structure, which spread across the entire country. The exchange of the man, the individual, in this case, is not as relevant as it would have been,” explained Waack, suggesting that the elimination of a figure like Khamenei will not necessarily destabilize the regime.
Conceptual error in the American vision
Waack criticized the view of some American politicians, such as Marco Rubio, who suggest that decisions in Iran are made “purely by theology” by radical clerics.
“The main decisions taken on behalf of a consolidated regime like the Iranian regime are geopolitical decisions taken in terms of national security,” he argued. “The consolidation of the regime, yes, takes place around a religious idea, but the decisions are calculated and cold” in the name of the country’s security.
The expert stated that the United States has “zero possibility” of influencing the succession in Iran, warning that a possible destabilization of the country could create an even more chaotic scenario in the region. “A country the size of Iran, when it collapses, creates chaos in a region that is already chaotic. And it creates a type of vacuum that attracts outside powers there,” he noted.
Regarding the economic impact of this crisis, especially with regard to the important oil flow route, Waack indicated that there will be consequences on energy prices, although not on the same magnitude as the oil crises of the 1970s.
“The company is already increasing production, precisely to compensate for what everyone knows, which is the bottleneck in Hormuz”, he explained.
Waack concluded by warning of the risks of a possible disintegration of Iran, a country made up of diverse ethnicities and historically held together by a strong central government. “Iran is held together by the strength and presence of a central government capable of exerting that force. If there is no one centrally exercising force, we are talking about disintegration.”
