The situation in the Middle East is expected, but the markets are not liking it
It was a practically winning bet and the first signs confirm this. The markets are reacting with natural apprehension to what is happening in the Middle East and the price of oil is an indicator of this.
In general, black gold prices have already risen 13%, reaching their highest values in several months in the early hours of this Monday. These are the effects of attacks by the United States and Israel on an area where much of the world’s oil is produced and exported.
According to the Bloomberg agency, the rise to a maximum of 82 dollars per barrel is the highest value since January 2025, in a sign that will certainly be quickly felt in our wallets when we fill up our cars with diesel and gasoline.
At this point, the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil flow passes, as well as a lot of natural gas, is practically paralyzed, especially because Iran has issued several warnings saying that it will not allow ships to pass through, something it has not yet implemented. Added to this is the fact that the security situation is highly unstable, as there are even burning oil tankers in the area.
This is the case of three oil tankers from the United States and the United Kingdom that, according to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, were attacked this weekend. In parallel, and confirming the tension in the region, the president of the United States announced a major attack on the Iranian Navy, which will have lost nine warships.
Anticipating the worst, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which has Iran as one of its founders, announced that it would increase the available quotas to 206,000 barrels per day, in what was a change in relation to what was envisioned, as greater moderation in the release of raw materials was expected.
The price of oil will be impacted immediately, but the long-term risks, especially if the military operation drags on, include inflationary pressure across the world, which in some places is still struggling to stabilize the latest inflation crisis that emerged after Covid-19.
To understand what is at stake, it helps to know that Iran alone puts 3.3 million barrels of oil on the market every day, which is equivalent to 3% of the world’s supply. Furthermore, and as already mentioned, its strategic position means that Tehran almost always has the last word on what passes through the Persian Gulf.
And although there does not appear to be any problem with the mining or oil production infrastructure, Goldman Sachs admits that the operation has already been “significantly affected”, especially because many ships and companies have entered in expectation to see what will happen.
“The main transmission channel of the Iranian crisis to the global economy and macroeconomic markets is its impact on energy markets, with the combination of severity and expected duration being key factors,” Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients.
For now we just have to wait, but the most certain thing is that there will be price increases soon.
