Iran’s Revolutionary Guard declared this Monday (2) that the Strait of Hormuz is closed and threatens vessels that try to cross it, according to Iranian media reports.
The decision comes after the death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which occurred after attacks by Israel and the United States last Saturday (28).
Impact on oil price
The price of oil should remain volatile and fluctuate between US$80 and US$100 per barrel after the US attack on Iran, and the consequent retaliation, says the partner at Leggio Consultoria, Marcus D’Elia.
For him, everything will depend on how long the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. If access is blocked for more than 40 days, there is a risk of a lack of oil in the world.
“The current conflict directly impacts the Strait of Hormuz, through which 15% of world oil production is exported. Of this volume, around 80% goes to Asia, mainly China, India, Japan and Korea. With threats from the Iranian government to attack ships that pass through this strait, oil companies have suspended navigation in the stretch”, explains D’Elia.
According to him, the strait could be completely closed in the case of the use of underwater mines, which require a long time to recover navigability, or restricted from the moment the risk to vessels becomes high. This increases the insurance and freight of these cargoes and reduces the interest of shipowners in carrying out this transport.
“The impact of this can vary significantly depending on how long the passage remains interrupted,” explains D’Elia.
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