The GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for 2025 will be released this Tuesday (3), but the projections from the economic team, the BC (Central Bank) and the market already give a hint of the result: they all point to a slowdown compared to 2024, when the economy grew 3.4%.
Double-digit interest pressure since the beginning of 2022 is seen as a major reason for the loss of momentum.
The Central Bank’s IBC-Br (Economic Activity Index), considered the “preview” of GDP, registered in 2025 compared to the previous year. The data was released on February 19.
Growth of 2.5% is also in the projection of the CNI (National Confederation of Industry). Economists consulted by the Central Bank in the Focus Bulletin estimate that the Brazilian economy advanced 2.26%.
The Ministry of Finance, in turn, predicts that the . According to the ministry, the slowdown compared to 2024 mainly reflects the maintenance of monetary policy at a restrictive level.
By productive sector, the Ministry of Finance’s expectation is for greater agricultural and industrial growth and a reduction in the growth rate of services. See the projections for 2025:
- Agriculture: 11,3%;
- Industry: 1,7%;
- Services: 1,7%.
The outlook in its Monetary Policy Report. See the authority’s projections by sector:
- Agriculture: 11%;
- Industry:1,6%;
- Services: 1,7%.
Interest rates put pressure on the economy
Expectations for the loss of momentum in the Brazilian economy last year are anchored by the weight of interest rates, which are at .
the end point of a rising cycle that began in September 2024, with the base rate starting at 10.5%.
The pressure on the economy should ease from March onwards, after the collegiate signaled the start of a new easing process at the January meeting, the first in 2026.
Despite expectations of a fall, the market still predicts that interest rates will end the year at 12.13%, according to data from the Focus Bulletin. For now, the market sees the Selic returning to single digits only in 2029.
