The median for Selic at the end of 2028 remained at 10% for the sixth week in a row
The median of the Focus report for the Selic rate at the end of 2026 fell from 12.13% to 12.00%. Considering only the 41 estimates updated in the last five business days, the median remained at 12.0%.
The projection for the end of 2027 remained at 10.50% for the 55th week in a row. Considering only the 37 estimates updated in the last five business days, the median also remained at 10.50%.
The median for Selic at the end of 2028 remained at 10% for the sixth week in a row. For 2029, the median remained at 9.50% for the 18th consecutive week.
Dollar
The median of the Focus report for the dollar exchange rate at the end of 2026 fell for the second week in a rowfrom R$5.45 to R$5.42. A month ago, it was R$5.50. The projection for the currency at the end of 2027 remained at R$5.50 for the fourth consecutive week.
The report’s interim estimate for the American currency at the end of 2028 remained at R$5.50. A month ago, it was R$5.52. By the end of 2029, it fluctuated from R$5.52 to R$5.50. Four weeks earlier, it was R$5.57.
The dollar closed 2025 at R$5.4840, with an accumulated loss of 11.18% against the real. The appreciation of the Brazilian currency was driven by the global weakening of the dollar and the attractiveness of carry trade operations, in the wake of the strong monetary tightening cycle led by the Central Bank, which took the Selic rate to 15% per year.
GDP
In relation to the growth of Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2026, the median of the Focus report remained at 1.82%. A month earlier, it was 1.80%. Considering only the 29 projections updated in the last five business days, which are more sensitive to news, the estimate fluctuated from 1.82% to 1.85%.
The Central Bank (BC) and the Ministry of Finance expect 2.3% growth for the Brazilian economy this yearaccording to the most recent figures released by the institutions.
Focus’s intermediate estimate for the growth of the Brazilian economy in 2027 it remained at 1.80% for the ninth consecutive week. Projections for 2028 and 2029 remained at 2%, for the 103rd and 50th consecutive weeks, respectively.
IPCA
The median of the Focus report for the 2026 IPCA remained at 3.91%. The rate is 0.91 percentage points above the center of the target, of 3%. A month ago, it was 3.99%. Considering only the 48 estimates updated in the last five business days, the measure went from 3.88% to 3.91%.
The projection for the 2027 IPCA fell from 3.80% to 3.79%, after 16 weeks of stability. Considering only the 47 estimates updated in the last five business days, the measure went from 3.80% to 3.74%.
The IPCA closed 2025 with an accumulated increase of 4.26%. The result was below the latest Focus median, which predicted an increase of 4.31%, and the Central Bank’s estimate for the period, an increase of 4.4%.
According to the trajectory disclosed in the statement from the January meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), the BC predicts that the IPCA will end 2026 with an increase of 3.4% and expects inflation in 12 months to reach 3.2% in the relevant horizon, the third quarter of 2027.
The Focus median for the 2028 IPCA remained at 3.50% for the 17th consecutive week. The projection for 2029 remained at 3.50% for the 26th reading in a row.
*with information from Estadão Conteúdo
