Israel’s attack on the assembly that would elect the successor to Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, who died last Saturday (28), represents a strategic blow not only against a political figure, but against the Iranian power structure itself.
According to an analysis by Fernanda Magnotta, in the CNN 360°Khamenei represented the “last wave of those who actually lived and were personally involved in the revolution.” This generational element is fundamental to understanding the impact of the death of the leader who governed the country since 1989.
“When we think about a succession, we are not only considering who the , but above all what changes this succession implies and which wing this new successor will belong to”, explained Magnotta. The analyst highlighted that the new leadership will set the tone for Iran’s next decisions on the international stage.
Strategy to destabilize the regime
The strategic decision of Israel and the United States appears to have gone beyond simply eliminating the Iranian leader. “It seems to me that the strategic decision was not only to decapitate the leader of the system, but to try to implode the decision-making process of that system itself in its capacity for renewal, for regeneration”, analyzed the expert.
Magnotta recalled that Iran is not a personalistic regime, having one that goes beyond the figure of the supreme leader. “It’s not because you replace the head of the system that the system necessarily breaks”, he pondered. However, by attacking itself, Israel hits deeper into a system that needs to create coordination mechanisms.
Challenges for the transition of power
The analyst highlighted that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei functioned as “the glue that unites the four main fronts that maintain the regime”: the revolutionary guard, the Basij forces (security apparatus), the intelligence system and the clergy.
“There are no conditions to maintain the regime without effective control passing through the armed forces, the militias, the territory and all chains of command”, explained Magnotta. She highlighted that the Iranian government’s capacity for repression remains intact, which hampers any possibility of a domestically driven political transition.
According to the analyst, the United States has focused its attacks on three specific military fronts: the Iranian navy, the ballistic missile project and the nuclear program. “These are concrete objectives, objectives, even very feasible from a practical point of view for the Americans,” he stated.
Magnotta concluded that, although the attack on the succession structure is significant, a deeper change in the Iranian regime would depend on the weakening of the repression machine, which to date remains operational and effective in controlling the population.
