Nicole Combeau / EPA
Despite Trump’s assurances that the conflict will not continue, there are analysts who doubt his promises of a quick resolution to the conflict with Iran.
This Monday, Trump tried to calm fears that the conflict with Iran will turn into another of the United States’ several “forever wars”, such as in Afghanistan or Iraq — wars that Trump has always promised to end in his election campaigns.
Speaking to journalists at the White House, the head of state stated that he expects the operation to last just about five weeksespecially after the quick death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
“We’re already well ahead of our timing projections, but whatever the timing, it’s OK, whatever it takes, we’ll always do this and we’ve always done this from the beginning. We project four to five weeksbut we have the capacity to go much further than that. We will make it,” he said.
However, the White House’s assurances are not convincing experts. “What we are seeing is that it will be more complicated than the White House expected,” says Suzanne Maloney, vice president and director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, to .
While the initial phase seemed “tremendously successful,” “I’m not optimistic that we’ll see a quick end to this conflict because the Iranians are intensify hostilities across the regionand this is his long-term plan”, anticipates the expert.
A central unanswered question is whether the US ultimately seeks regime change in Tehran, as this objective would almost certainly require sending troops to Iran. With a recent poll showing that only one in four Americans approve attacks against Iran and with it breaking its anti-war promises, sending soldiers seems, for now, unlikely.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has also denied such intentions, but the death of Khamenei and his closest allies raises great uncertainty about Iran’s political future and who will succeed him.
“There is no possibility of US forces being used to invade a country the size of Iran. This is not a small country, it is a vast country. It would be a situation like Iraq againand that’s not going to happen,” says Malcolm Rifkind, former UK Foreign and Defense Secretary.
Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal Middle East analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, believes the US wants a “very, very quick resolution to this conflict” but believes that scenario is unlikely.
“We will have to prepare for a potentially protracted conflict. We hear President Trump talk about a four to five week operation, but Iran is a huge country, with a huge population and a very extensive security apparatus. Therefore, trying to unravel this situation and reach some kind of provisional solution will be extremely difficult”, he analyzes.
In an opinion piece for , Amin Saikal, Professor Emeritus of Middle Eastern Studies, does not believe Hegseth’s promises that the US does not want a change in government. “The United States and Israel want nothing less than a regime changeand the regime is determined to survive”, he writes.
The expert also points out some factors that could lead to the prolongation of the conflict. “While Khamenei’s death is a significant blow to the Islamic regime, It’s not insurmountable. Many Iranian leaders have been killed in the past, including Qassem Soleimani, the architect of Tehran’s regional security, assassinated by the US in January 2020. But they were replaced relatively smoothly, and the Islamic regime remained in power”, he recalls.
Amin Saikal also emphasizes that Khamenei was also seen as a spiritual leader by many Muslims across the region and his assassination risks “unleash a wave of violent acts extremists” for revenge.
There is also the issue of the Revolutionary Guard and its paramilitary group Basij, which are brutally repressing internal opposition. “Their destinies are closely linked to the regime. The same is true of several Iranian government administrators and bureaucrats, as well as regime sympathizers among ordinary Iranians. They are motivated by a mix of Shi’ism and fervent nationalism to remain loyal to the regime,” he explains.
“We are sorry for the Iranian people, the region and the world who will have to bear the consequences of yet another war in the Middle East, in search of geopolitical gains in an already deeply troubled world”, he concludes.
