The Iran war is not over. No bombs fall, but tension is maximum in the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic has not recovered prior to February 28, when the United States and Israel launched their first attack. The world sees how the consequences of this blockade are multiplying, with the perpetual fear that the attacks will be resumed due to the lack of diplomatic progress.
In this context of anguish, however, some light is beginning to be seen. American and Iranian negotiators yesterday maintained opposing positions in their dialogue regarding Tehran’s uranium reserves and controls in the coveted strait, but US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, affirms that “some positive signs” have been observed in the talks.
US President Donald Trump has insisted that his country will eventually recover Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium (estimated at around 450 kilos), which Washington believes are destined for a nuclear weapon, although Tehran claims its purpose is exclusively peaceful. “We’ll get it. We don’t need it, we don’t want it. We’ll probably destroy it after we get it, but we’re not going to let them keep it,” the Republican told reporters at the White House.
Rubio, for his part, told reporters that a diplomatic solution would be unviable if Tehran implemented a toll system in the Strait of Hormuz. However, he added that some progress had been made in the talks. “There are some positive signs,” Rubio said. “I don’t want to be too optimistic… So, let’s see what happens in the next few days,” he warns.
A senior Iranian source told Reuters that no agreement has been reached, it is true, but that differences have narrowed, adding that Iran’s uranium enrichment and Tehran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz remain sticking points. Oil prices fluctuated sharply in a volatile session yesterday, falling amid uncertainty over the resolution of the war. Either there is hope or we all want to have it.
Two high-ranking Iranian sources told the British agency, before Trump’s statements, that Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mokhtaba Khamenei, had issued a directive that uranium not be sent abroad. Trump also harshly criticized Tehran’s intention to charge fees for the use of the strait, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas transited before the war. “We want it to be open, we want it to be free. We don’t want tolls,” he said. “It is an international maritime route,” he says.
“We want Hormuz to be open, we want it to be free. We don’t want tolls. It is an international sea route”
Donald Trump
Trump has declared his readiness to resume attacks on Iran if he does not get adequate responses from Iranian leaders. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has warned, in turn, that a resumption of attacks would provoke retaliation beyond the region.
How to streamline contacts
While talks to end the war appear to have made little progress in the six weeks since a fragile ceasefire came into effect, one of the main mediators, Pakistani army chief Asim Munir, was likely headed to Tehran on Thursday for fresh talks, three sources told Reuters and two more to the New York Times.
“We are talking to all groups in Iran to streamline communication and accelerate negotiations,” said one of the sources familiar with the negotiations. “Trump’s patience is wearing thin, but we are working to improve communication between both sides.”
Pakistani Interior Minister Syed Mohsin Naqvi on Wednesday made his second trip to Tehran this week, carrying a message from the United States, and held talks with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and his counterpart, Iran’s semi-official ISNA news agency reported.
Political deadlock has wreaked havoc on the global economy, primarily due to the inflationary impact of high oil prices. Trump faces domestic pressure heading into next November’s midterm elections, with his approval rating near its lowest level since his return to the White House last year.
Tehran presented its latest offer this week. The leaks suggest he largely reiterates terms Trump previously rejected, including demands for control of Hormuz, compensation for war damages, lifting sanctions, releasing frozen assets and withdrawing US troops.
Raising head
The report on the negotiations comes when the North American network CNN has revealed that Iran has taken advantage of the fire event, which has already lasted six weeks, to resume part of its drone production, a sign that it is quickly rebuilding certain military capabilities degraded by the Operation Epic Fury attacks.
The network, which cites sources familiar with US intelligence, assures that the Iranian army is being reconstituted much faster than initially estimated. The reconstruction of military capabilities, including the change of missile sites, launchers and the production capacity of key weapons systems destroyed during the current conflict means that Iran “remains a significant threat to regional allies,” states EFE.
And this also calls into question claims about the extent of the long-term deterioration of the Iranian military caused by the US and Israeli attacks, the network highlights.
While the time to resume production of different weapons components varies, some US intelligence estimates indicate that Iran could fully reconstitute its drone strike capability in as little as six months, an unnamed US official told CNN.
Drone attacks are a particular concern for regional allies. If hostilities resume, Iran could increase its significantly depleted missile production capacity with more drone launches to continue attacking Israel and the Gulf countries, which are within range of both weapons systems.
And what is the reason for this speed when it comes to raising one’s head? To a combination of factors, ranging from the support it receives from Russia and China to the fact that the United States and Israel did not inflict as much damage as they expected, according to a source who has spoken with the aforementioned media. For example, Beijing has continued to supply Iran with components during the conflict that can be used to make missiles, two sources familiar with US intelligence assessments told CNN, although this has likely been limited by the current US blockade in the area.
Additionally, Iran maintains its ballistic missile, drone strike and air defense capabilities, despite severe damage inflicted by US and Israeli strikes, according to recent US intelligence assessments. This means that the rapid reconstruction of its military production capacity does not start from scratch.
A young woman walks past a billboard with an AI image of the Strait of Hormuz as if it were a gag over the mouth of Donald Trumop, in Tehran, on May 3, 2026.
The worst energy crisis
The International Energy Agency has also stated in recent hours that the conflict has caused the worst global energy crisis. It warned Thursday that peak fuel demand in the summer, coupled with supply shortages in the Middle East, could push the market into a critical situation in July and August.
Some ships manage to transit the strait, but in minimal numbers compared to the 125-140 daily passages before the war. The Iranian news agency IRNA reported that 31 ships had crossed the strait in the last 24 hours, in coordination with the Iranian navy.
Iran stated that its goal is to reopen the strait to friendly countries that meet its conditions, which could include paying fees. “If they persisted in this position, a diplomatic agreement would be unviable. Therefore, it represents a threat to the world and is completely illegal,” Rubio said.
Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said their war goals were to curb Iran’s support for regional militias, dismantle its nuclear program, destroy its missile capabilities and make it easier for the Iranians to overthrow their rulers.
However, Iran has so far retained its stockpile of near-weapons-grade enriched uranium and its ability to threaten its neighbors with missiles, drones and proxy militias.
A complicated vote
Meanwhile, tonight, Republicans have struggled to find the votes needed to reject legislation that would force President Trump to withdraw from the war with Iran, delaying scheduled votes on the issue until June.
The House of Representatives had scheduled a vote on a war powers resolution, introduced by Democrats, that would limit the magnate’s military campaign. But as it became clear that Republicans would not have the votes necessary to reject the bill, Republican leaders refused to put it to a vote. “This was the latest sign of waning support in Congress for a war that Trump started more than two months ago without congressional approval,” AP summarizes.
Republicans in the Senate are also working to ensure they have the votes needed to reject another war powers resolution that came to a final vote earlier this week, when four Republican senators supported the resolution and three others were absent from the vote.
The actions of congressional leaders showed that Republicans are having difficulty maintaining political support for Trump’s management of the war. Rank-and-file Republicans are increasingly willing to challenge the president on the conflict. House Republican leader Steve Scalise told reporters that the vote was delayed to give absent lawmakers a chance to vote. It sounds like an excuse, but it’s worth it for now.
On Capitol Hill, patience with the war has run out, especially with the blockade of Hormuz. Another House resolution on war powers nearly passed last week but failed in a tie vote, with three Republicans voting in favor. “People are finally starting to listen to the American people who don’t support the war in Iran, and I think more and more Republicans are realizing how devastating the war has been for our country,” said Democratic Rep. Adam Smith of Washington state.
