Fuel prices could experience one of the biggest weekly increases ever in Portugal, especially diesel. The most recent forecasts point to an increase of between 23 and 25 cents per liter from March 8, 2026.
According to the Economy and Finance website, which specializes in economics, several energy market sources cited by different vehicles indicate that the rise in diesel prices could exceed 20 cents in a single week. In the case of gasoline, the expected increase should be close to seven cents per liter.
If these predictions are confirmed, it could be one of the biggest increases recorded between two consecutive weeks in the Portuguese fuel market.
Conflict in the Middle East influences prices
The expected increase is directly related to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The recent worsening of the conflict involving Israel, the United States and Iran has caused severe disturbances in the international oil market.
The Iranian response to the conflict has led to an increase in military tensions in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Peninsula region.
This region is one of the main oil production and export areas in the world, which makes any instability particularly sensitive for energy markets.
Strait of Hormuz at the center of the crisis
One of the factors that has contributed most to the rise in prices is the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian forces are said to have partially blocked this strategic sea passage.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important corridors for the world’s oil transport. Much of the crude produced in the Middle East passes through this point before heading to international markets, including Asia and Europe.
Global impact on the energy market
The consequences of the blockade are not limited to countries directly dependent on this route. According to Economy and Finance, the interruption of the normal flow of oil is having a knock-on effect on global markets.
Countries and companies that depended on supplies through that region are now looking for alternative suppliers. This movement increases demand in other markets and ends up putting pressure on prices around the world.
Diesel is expected to be the most affected fuel
Among the different fuels, diesel should be the most impacted by the increase. According to the publication, the forecast increase of more than 20 cents could represent one of the biggest price jumps recorded in Portugal between two consecutive weeks.
The impact will be particularly relevant for sectors such as transport, logistics and agriculture, which rely heavily on this fuel. For consumers, the increase can quickly be reflected in the daily cost of mobility.
Government reduces tax burden to limit rise
Given the size of the expected increase, the government decided to apply a temporary measure to reduce the impact on the final price. According to the same source, the tax burden on fuel should be reduced by around 3.55 cents per liter.
This measure does not eliminate the rise, but may help to partially mitigate the rise that should be felt at the fuel pumps. Still, even with this fiscal intervention, the final increase could approach or exceed 20 cents in the case of diesel.
Price evolution depends on the duration of the conflict
The evolution of prices in the coming weeks will largely depend on the evolution of the conflict in the Middle East. According to , the longer the tensions and restrictions on oil transport last, the greater the impact on energy markets.
The intensity of the conflict and possible interruptions in production and transport chains will be decisive factors.
The final value of the fuel update should be defined after the end of the trading sessions in the international reference markets. Until then, markets remain attentive to the development of the geopolitical situation and its consequences on the global energy sector.
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