PT is numerically ahead and leads voting intentions in the 1st round
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) confirmed the rise scenario and technically tied in the 2nd round with President Lula (PT) in the Datafolha survey released this Saturday (7). According to the survey, the PT member has 46% of voting intentions, against 43% for the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL). They tie on the margin of error, which is plus or minus two points.
The survey is the first released by the institute after Flávio confirmed that he is a pre-candidate for President with the support of his father, Jair Bolsonaro (PL), who is imprisoned at the Federal Police in Brasília after being convicted of an attempted coup d’état.
The research identifies that Flávio Bolsonaro has established himself as Lula’s main opponent. When voters are asked who they intend to vote for, without being presented with names, the senator from Rio de Janeiro appears with 12% of voting intentions – he was not mentioned in the previous survey, in December.
The congressman has been consolidating himself and was already tied with Lula in 2nd round scenarios in the latest surveys by and , both released at the end of February. Genial/Quest will publish a new survey this week.
Datafolha interviewed 2,004 voters in 137 municipalities from March 3 to 5. The survey is registered with the Electoral Court under code BR-03715/2026. The margin of error is plus or minus two points.
Datafolha also analyzed a scenario with the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, as the PT candidate. He scores 21% compared to Flávio’s 33%. The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos-SP), was also tested, and received 21% of voting intentions.
1st round
In the stimulated survey, Lula has 36% of voting intentions in the first round and Flávio, 25%.
Among the other pre-candidates and state governors, that of Paraná, Ratinho Jr. (PSD) scores 7%, followed by the governor of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema (Novo), with 5%. The governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), has 3%, the same level as the governor of Rio Grande do Sul, Eduardo Leite (PSD).
*With Estadão Content
